Zack Wheeler has spent 2026 building one of the quietest ace campaigns in the National League, and on Tuesday he draws the toughest possible assignment: the Los Angeles Dodgers, who carry the best record in the majors at 63-38. That heavyweight bout at Citizens Bank Park headlines a loaded 15-game Tuesday card.
Every game has a number worth examining, but three stand out for the tension between where the money is going and where the public is sitting: a mid-day moneyline in the Citizens Bank Park headliner, a run-line lean under the primetime lights in the Bronx, and a late-night total from the Pacific Northwest. Here is where the value sits, and why.
Last Updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Mid-Day Game — Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| When | Tuesday, July 21 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | TBS |
This is the marquee matchup of the night, and it features a starter at the top of his game. Zack Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies with a 10-1 record and a 2.13 ERA, numbers that place him among the best arms in the National League. Philadelphia sits at 56-45 and holds a wild-card spot, though a recent series loss to the Mets cooled the momentum. The Dodgers counter with Justin Wrobleski, a left-hander who has broken out at 10-2 with a 2.69 ERA and earned his first career All-Star selection.
Los Angeles owns the best record in baseball at 63-38, and the market has taken notice. The Phillies opened as a -138 home favorite on the moneyline. That price has since shortened to -125, while the Dodgers moved from +115 to +105. Money is landing on Los Angeles even as the public backs Philadelphia, with 66 percent of moneyline tickets on the Phillies. When a line drifts against the popular side, it usually points to sharper money on the other.
Both clubs are managing rotation questions, with the Dodgers missing Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Wheeler is the equalizer here, and Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly venue that can turn a close game in a hurry. Still, the Los Angeles lineup is deep top to bottom, and getting the strongest team in the sport at a plus price is value that does not surface often.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +1.5 (-185) | +105 | U 9.0 (-125) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+160) | -125 | O 9.0 (+105) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Dodgers | 66% | 34% | Phillies |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (+105)
The case for Los Angeles is straightforward. This is the best team in baseball, available at plus money, with the betting market quietly moving in its direction against heavy public support for Philadelphia. Wrobleski has pitched like a front-line starter all year, and the Dodgers can score against anyone. The case against is just as real. Wheeler is arguably the best pitcher either side will send out this week, and a vintage start makes this price look like a trap. The reverse line movement is enough to side with the more complete roster at a plus number, but this remains a coin-flip game. For a fuller breakdown, see our Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction.
Late Game — Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| When | Tuesday, July 21 – 7:05 PM ET |
| TV | YES Network |
The Yankees enter Tuesday at 56-44 and in second place in the AL East, but they do so without the heart of their order. Aaron Judge is on the injured list with a rib issue, and Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon are sidelined as well. New York still profiles as a comfortable home favorite, listed at -153 on the moneyline against a rebuilding-adjacent Pittsburgh club.
Pittsburgh sends rookie right-hander Bubba Chandler to the mound. Chandler carries a 3-8 record and a 4.77 ERA, and command has been his biggest hurdle. Free baserunners are dangerous at Yankee Stadium, where the short right-field porch turns routine fly balls into runs even in a Judge-less lineup. The Pirates, at 52-49, are hanging around the NL wild-card race and will not roll over, but their margin against a patient home lineup is thin.
The betting market has barely moved off the open. The Yankees sat at -155 when the line posted and are now -153, a sign the number is efficient. The public is firmly on New York, with 88 percent of moneyline tickets and 62 percent of run-line tickets on the Yankees. That combination pushes the run line into focus as the more interesting price.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | +1.5 (-160) | +128 | U 9.5 (-115) |
| Yankees | -1.5 (+135) | -153 | O 9.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pirates | 38% | 62% | Yankees |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+135)
The case for the Yankees is about price and matchup. Even without Judge, New York’s lineup is disciplined enough to punish a rookie who struggles to throw strikes, and the short porch rewards that patience. Laying the run line at +135 captures the public’s lean on the Yankees at a better number than the -153 moneyline. The case against starts with the man not in the lineup. Judge is the engine of this offense, and his absence lowers the ceiling on a multi-run win. Will Warren is a mid-rotation arm, not a stopper, and the Pirates are playing meaningful baseball. Run lines on favorites always carry one-run-game risk, and a tight, low-scoring night would sink the ticket. The plus-money run line is enough to take the swing, with clear eyes about the downside. Our Pirates vs. Yankees prediction digs in further.
Late-Night Game — Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners — Time & How to Watch
| Where | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| When | Tuesday, July 21 – 9:40 PM ET |
| TV | Mariners.TV |
The nightcap sends the Reds to Seattle for a late West Coast start, and it features one of the game’s brightest young arms. Chase Burns has been a revelation for Cincinnati at 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, and the Reds rewarded him with a seven-year, $105 million contract extension. The 44-53 Reds have little else going right, but Burns has been the clear exception.
Seattle counters with Luis Castillo, who faces the organization that traded him away in 2022. Castillo has had an uneven season at 3-8 with a 4.93 ERA, and that gap in starting pitching is the crux of the total. The Mariners sit at 49-50 and lean on a home park that consistently suppresses offense. T-Mobile Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, and the total reflects it, opening and holding around 7.5 runs.
The market has nudged the under. Both sides of the total opened around -110, but the under is now priced at -120 while the over sits at even money. That movement points to expectations of a low-scoring night, which tracks with Burns on the mound and a ballpark that rewards pitching.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 (-220) | +102 | U 7.5 (-120) |
| Mariners | -1.5 (+180) | -122 | O 7.5 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Reds | 25% | 75% | Mariners |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
The case for the under rests on pitching and park. Burns has the stuff to quiet a middling Seattle lineup, T-Mobile Park is among the best run-suppressing venues in the sport, and the market is already leaning this way. Low totals in Seattle have a habit of staying low. The case against centers on Castillo. His 4.93 ERA says he is capable of surrendering a crooked number, and if he does, the Mariners’ offense at home can push this over in a single inning. The -120 juice also trims the margin. This is a spot to back the under, though a shaky Castillo start is the clear path to being wrong.
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
Three angles span the Tuesday card. Take the Dodgers on the moneyline against the Phillies in the mid-day headliner, back the Yankees on the run line at home against the Pirates under the primetime lights, and side with the under in the late-night Reds-Mariners total in Seattle. One moneyline, one run line, and one total — a balanced ticket built on pitching.