The Indiana Fever open a four-game West Coast road trip on Sunday night, and they arrive at T-Mobile Arena as short underdogs to the league-leading Las Vegas Aces. Las Vegas sits at 3-point favorites, a number that has shrunk sharply since the game first opened.
Two MVP-caliber names hang over this matchup, and both are on the sideline. That combination has scrambled the market and left real value hiding on more than one side. Below, we break down the spread, the total, and a moneyline angle worth a look.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 5, 2026
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces — Time & How to Watch
| Where | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| When | Sunday, July 5 – 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Game Preview
Las Vegas enters as one of the WNBA’s hottest teams. At 15-5, the Aces are tied for the best record in the league with the Minnesota Lynx. Becky Hammon’s group is coming off a 98-90 overtime win over Chicago, a game it closed out despite missing its franchise star. Former Fever forward NaLyssa Smith went for 29 points and eight rebounds, and Jewell Loyd added 19.
The catch is health. Reigning four-time MVP A’ja Wilson has missed the Aces’ last two games with a right leg injury, and she is not in the projected starting five. Las Vegas was also without her when it fell to New York in the Commissioner’s Cup final. Even so, the roster stays deep, with Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Loyd all capable of carrying the load.
Indiana arrives at 11-8 and firmly in the Eastern playoff race. The Fever are rested after a week off, yet they too are shorthanded. Caitlin Clark will sit again with a back injury, her second straight absence. That is a heavy loss, since Clark anchors the offense as both a scorer and the lead passer. Still, Indiana just dismantled the Sparks 111-87 without her. Kelsey Mitchell poured in 26 points, Aliyah Boston added 17 on efficient shooting, and Tyasha Harris chipped in 16 starting in Clark’s spot.
The two sides know each other well. They met in last year’s WNBA Semifinals, where a banged-up Indiana team pushed Las Vegas to overtime in Game 5 before bowing out. This is their first meeting of the 2026 season, and they will run it back in Vegas again on July 12.
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fever | +3 (-110) | +130 | U 181 (-110) |
| Aces | -3 (-110) | -150 | O 181 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 5, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Fever | 50% | 50% | Aces |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Fever vs. Aces Best Bet — Can the Fever Hang Around Without Their Star?
The most important detail here is the line movement. The Aces opened as high as 6.5-point favorites. By Sunday morning, that price had been bet down to just 3. That is a steep drop, and it tracks directly with Wilson’s status. When a contender loses its MVP, the market adjusts quickly, and it has already done so in this spot.
The case for the road side is straightforward. Indiana proved it can score in bunches without Clark, and Las Vegas has been oddly vulnerable at home. The Aces are just 4-5 against the spread at their own building this season, as we noted in our July 3 look at the Aces hosting Chicago. Without Wilson patrolling the paint, Boston and the Indiana bigs could find room inside.
There is a real counterargument, though. Indiana has struggled on the road against the number, sitting at 0-4 ATS away from home. The Fever are also winless when listed as an underdog this season. Losing Clark on the road strips away their steadiest half-court creator, and the Aces still roll out Loyd, Gray, Young, and Smith. Depth is not the concern for Las Vegas. Finishing games at home has been.
The Pick: Fever +3 (-110)
Fever vs. Aces Prediction — Will Two Missing Stars Drag the Scoring Down?
The total has moved in step with the spread. It opened at 183.5 and has since been trimmed to 181. That downward push makes sense with two high-usage scorers sidelined. Wilson is the league’s leading scorer, and Clark ranks among its assist leaders. Removing both takes a meaningful chunk of offense off the floor.
The other side has merit. Indiana pushed the tempo and dropped 111 on the Sparks in its last outing, and the Aces cleared 90 in their most recent win. Both teams can get up and down when healthy. However, Las Vegas games have generally landed on the lower side of totals this season, and the market is signaling caution by shaving points off the number. With so much scoring on the bench, the under looks like the sharper read.
The Pick: Under 181 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
One more angle stands out. The public is piling onto the Aces to win outright, with roughly 87 percent of moneyline tickets on Las Vegas. That lopsided support comes even though the home side is missing its MVP. At +130, the Fever offer a tempting price for a team that just won by 24 points without its own star. The risk is obvious, since Indiana has yet to win a game as an underdog this year. Even so, fading heavy public money on a shorthanded favorite is a classic value spot. For more of Sunday’s slate, see our Wings at Tempo prediction.
Bonus Pick: Fever moneyline (+130)
To recap, here are our picks for Fever at Aces: Fever +3 (-110), Under 181 (-110), and a bonus play on the Fever moneyline at +130. Each leans on the same theme. A heavily backed favorite is missing its best player, and the Fever have shown they can still function without Clark.
WNBA Fever vs Aces Sunday July 5, 2026 FAQ
What time does the Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces game start?
The game tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 5, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
What channel is the Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces game on?
The game is broadcast nationally on ESPN, with streaming available on the ESPN app and Disney+.
Who is favored in the Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces game?
The Las Vegas Aces are 3-point favorites at home, with the Indiana Fever getting +3 as road underdogs.
Is Caitlin Clark playing on Sunday?
No. Caitlin Clark will miss the game with a back injury, her second straight absence.
Who won the last meeting between the Fever and Aces?
The Aces eliminated the Fever in last year’s WNBA Semifinals, winning the series in five games with an overtime victory in the decider.