Paraguay vs France Predictions July 4: Is France the Day’s Best Bet?

The Round of 32 knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is officially complete. Argentina beat Cape Verde 3-2 in extra time on Friday to advance to the Round of 16 and Colombia defeated Ghana 1-0 in regulation. Sixteen teams are still alive at the time of this writing. July 4 is the twenty-fourth match day of the tournament and the first day of Round of 16 knockout stage play.

There are 2 Round of 16 knockout stage games on Saturday. Canada faces off against Morocco in the opener. Paraguay plays France in the second and final game of the day.

Can Morocco win outright, cover the 0.5-goal spread, and advance to the quarterfinals? Will France score 2+ goals and cover the 1.5-goal spread as favorites against Paraguay?

Note: If a game is tied at the end of 90 minutes and stoppage time, it is technically ruled a "draw" for betting purposes. Additionally, spreads and totals only apply to the 90 minutes of regulation time and stoppage time unless specified.

I'll make game result picks for both of the day's contests, in addition to a bonus pick, below. Continue reading for our World Cup Best Bets July 4 article.

Canada vs. Morocco — Time & How to Watch

Canada vs. Morocco Odds

Odds accurate as of Saturday, July 4, 2026, via TheSpread.com.

Canada vs Morocco Prediction July 4 Game Result Pick

Under manager Jesse Marsch, Canada can cover the 0.5-goal spread as underdogs against Morocco by leveraging their 1 day rest advantage.

While Morocco boasts considerable talent, they are recovering from an exhausting 120-minute shootout against the Netherlands. Conversely, Canada is energized by Stephen Eustaquio’s stoppage-time winner and the dynamic play of Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David.

By deploying Marsch's aggressive high press and relying on a defense fresh off a 1-0 shutout of South Africa, this resilient Canadian squad has the speed and skill needed to secure a regulation draw or outright victory in front of a raucous Houston crowd.

Pick: Canada +0.5 (-105)

Paraguay vs. France — Time & How to Watch

Paraguay vs. France Odds

Paraguay vs France Prediction July 4 Game Result Pick

Backing France -1.5 is a strong value play against a Paraguayan squad running on fumes after a grueling 120-minute shootout upset over Germany.

While Paraguay’s low block survived that defensive barrage, they now face Didier Deschamps’s offensive juggernaut in the sweltering Philadelphia heat. France has been ruthless, tallying 13 goals while conceding just 2 all tournament, fresh off a breezy 3-0 demolition of Sweden.

With Kylian Mbappé and Bradley Barcola poised to exploit the heavy legs of Gustavo Alfaro’s defense, France’s sheer pace and clinical finishing offer a massive tactical advantage. Expect Les Bleus to comfortably win by multiple goals.

Pick: France -1.5 (-165)

World Cup Predictions July 4 Bonus Pick

France has been offensively steamrolling teams in this tournament. Les Bleus have scored at least 3 goals in each game they've played in this year's World Cup. Their offense, anchored by Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise, has allowed them to win each of their contests by multiple goals.

Because I'm picking France to win this game by 2 goals or more, it stands to reason that they will have a good chance to go over the total of 2.5 goals on their own. Paraguay was fortunate to get past Germany in the Round of 32, but I think they'll have trouble preventing France from scoring on Saturday evening. The over on 2.5 goals is the play.

Bonus Pick: Paraguay vs. France Over 2.5 (-150)

The Round of 16 field of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is set. Are you new to soccer betting? Check out our how to bet on soccer guide.

Today's World Cup Picks

1. Canada +0.5 (-105)
2. France -1.5 (-165)
   • Bonus Pick: Paraguay vs. France Over 2.5 (-150)