Aaron Nola takes the mound in Philadelphia carrying an ERA north of 5.50, and that alone reshapes how Monday’s board looks. The Phillies remain strong, yet their veteran starter has allowed five or more runs in three of his last five outings.
That gap is the kind of edge a board rewards, part of a busy 13-game Monday slate. We isolated three angles: an opening moneyline lean in the Keystone State, a primetime run-line play in the NL Central, and a late total on the North Side. Each pick comes with the case for and against.
Last Updated: Monday, June 29, 2026
Early Game — Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia PA |
| When | Monday, June 29 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia |
The Phillies enter at 47-37 and have won five of their last six, including a 5-4 victory over the Mets. On paper, that makes Philadelphia a comfortable home favorite. The pitching matchup complicates the picture. Nola makes his 17th start at 3-4, and he most recently surrendered five runs to the White Sox. His command has wavered all season, and the price suggests the market has noticed.
Pittsburgh counters with right-hander Braxton Ashcraft, one of the quieter success stories in the league. Ashcraft is 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 107 strikeouts. The Pirates have climbed back to .500 at 42-42 and sit 5-5 over their last 10. They hold the clear edge on the mound Monday. See our full Pirates-Phillies preview for more.
The market reflects that tension. Despite the Phillies drawing 73% of the run-line bets, the line has drifted slightly toward Pittsburgh rather than away. That kind of reverse movement often signals sharper money on the road side.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | +1.5 (-225) | -109 | U 8.5 (+100) |
| Phillies | -1.5 (+185) | -111 | O 8.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, June 29, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pirates | 27% | 73% | Phillies |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-109)
The case for Pittsburgh starts with the arms. Ashcraft has pitched to a sub-3.10 ERA all season, while Nola has struggled to keep runs off the board. With the public on Philadelphia and the price nudging toward the Pirates, there is value backing the road side near an even number. The case against is straightforward. Nola remains capable of a bounce-back, and the Phillies lineup is deeper at home. A short price on a sub-.500 road team carries real risk if Nola settles in early.
Mid-Day Game — Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | American Family Field, Milwaukee WI |
| When | Monday, June 29 – 7:40 PM ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin |
Milwaukee opens a four-game series as one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Brewers own the best record in the National League Central and a sizable division lead. Cincinnati arrives in a tougher spot, hovering around .500 and coming off a 9-4 loss to the Pirates.
Left-hander Robert Gasser gets the ball for Milwaukee at 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA. Cincinnati counters with fellow southpaw Nick Lodolo, who is 2-2 but carrying an ERA near 5.60 and a WHIP above 1.50. Neither starter has been consistently sharp, which puts extra weight on the bullpens.
The betting interest is lopsided. Milwaukee has drawn 89% of the run-line tickets, yet the Brewers’ moneyline has gotten cheaper since the line opened. When a heavy public favorite drifts in price like that, it often points to sharper money backing the underdog.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 (-170) | +121 | U 9.0 (-120) |
| Brewers | -1.5 (+145) | -144 | O 9.0 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, June 29, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Reds | 11% | 89% | Brewers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Run Line +1.5 (-170)
The case for the Reds run line rests on value and matchup. Milwaukee is excellent, but Gasser’s 4.50 ERA does not suggest a dominant outing, and the reverse line movement hints the market is overrating the public’s love for the Brewers. Taking 1.5 runs with a live underdog softens the risk of a Cincinnati loss while still cashing if the Reds keep it close. The case against is Milwaukee’s form and home edge. The Brewers have the better roster, and Lodolo’s high ERA could let them win comfortably by two or more runs, which would sink the ticket.
Late Game — San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago IL |
| When | Monday, June 29 – 8:05 PM ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network |
The Cubs (46-38) host the Padres (43-39) in a matchup of two clubs still firmly in the playoff conversation. Chicago turns to left-hander Shota Imanaga, who has anchored the rotation with a 4.40 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.05. San Diego sends out right-hander Griffin Canning, who has endured a rough stretch at 0-4 with a 7.16 ERA.
On the surface, a struggling Padres starter at Wrigley Field points toward offense. The total tells a more interesting story. It opened at 12.0 runs and has been bet down a full run to 11.0, a notable move in a market that usually shifts totals in smaller steps.
Downward movement of that size typically reflects money on the under. Imanaga’s ability to limit hard contact gives the Cubs a strong chance to keep San Diego’s lineup quiet, which is the foundation of the under case.
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | +1.5 (-150) | +131 | U 11.0 (-110) |
| Cubs | -1.5 (+130) | -157 | O 11.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, June 29, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Padres | 17% | 83% | Cubs |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Under 11.0 (-110)
The case for the under leans on Imanaga and the line move. His 4.40 ERA and tidy WHIP make him capable of holding a streaky San Diego offense in check, and the full-run drop suggests informed money agrees. The case against is obvious. Canning’s 7.16 ERA is a flashing warning sign, and Wrigley can play as a launching pad when conditions favor hitters. A few early Cubs runs against Canning could clear this number alone.
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
To recap Monday’s three picks: take the Pirates on the moneyline against a struggling Aaron Nola, grab the Reds run line as a contrarian play against the heavily backed Brewers, and lean under the total in the Padres-Cubs matchup at Wrigley. Each play has a clear path and a clear risk, so size your wagers accordingly.