The New York Yankees carry the best record in the American League East into Boston, and the rivalry renews on a busy nine-game Thursday slate that runs from a Bay Area matinee to a primetime clash at Fenway Park. New York sits at 48-31 atop the division, but the standings are not the whole story today. In several spots, the pitching matchups and the betting market tell us more than the won-loss columns do. Three games stand out, and they line up neatly across the day. We have a West Coast underdog angle this afternoon, a Motor City line-movement lean as the evening opens, and a total in the night’s marquee rivalry. Each one comes with a clear case for and against, much like our Wednesday best bets roundup, so read on for the reasoning behind the picks.
Last Updated: Thursday, June 25, 2026
Early Game — Athletics at San Francisco Giants
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Oracle Park, San Francisco CA |
| When | Thursday, June 25 – 3:45 PM ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Bay Area |
The Athletics close out their series in San Francisco at 38-41, and they meet a Giants club that has slipped to 32-46 in the National League West. On paper the home side is the favorite. The pitching matchup, however, leans firmly toward the visitors, and that gap is the heart of this play.
Oakland hands the ball to left-hander Gage Jump, who carries a sharp 2.37 ERA and is coming off seven innings of one-hit baseball against the Angels on June 18. San Francisco counters with Tyler Mahle, who owns a 6.04 ERA and makes his first start since landing on the injured list in late May. Rust is a real question for the right-hander, and his form before the IL stint was already shaky. Meanwhile, Jump has been one of the steadier arms on the Oakland staff.
The public is leaning hard on the Giants at home. Roughly 65% of run-line tickets and 69% of moneyline tickets sit on San Francisco, which inflates the home price and quietly adds value to the road side. That combination of a pitching edge and a fading underdog is exactly the kind of spot worth a closer look.
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | +1.5 (-185) | +111 | U 9.0 (-120) |
| San Francisco Giants | -1.5 (+160) | -133 | O 9.0 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, June 25, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Athletics | 35% | 65% | San Francisco Giants |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+111)
The case for Oakland is straightforward. The visitors hold the better record, own a clear edge on the mound with Jump opposing a rusty Mahle, and offer plus money on a team the market is fading. The case against is real too. Oracle Park favors the home side, Mahle could be sharp in his return, and Oakland’s offense ranks among the quieter units in the league, so one swing could decide a low-scoring game. Still, the value is on the road side here, similar to the angle we flagged in Wednesday’s matchup preview. This is a lean on price and pitching rather than a statement on either offense.
Mid-Day Game — Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Comerica Park, Detroit MI |
| When | Thursday, June 25 – 6:40 PM ET |
| TV | Detroit SportsNet |
Houston visits Detroit to open a four-game set, and the betting market has quietly shifted toward the road team. The Astros sit at 39-43 while the Tigers come in at 34-46, so the visitors actually carry the stronger record into the series opener. More telling, Houston opened as a slight underdog and has since been bet up to a near pick’em price.
That move matters because the public is firmly on Detroit. Roughly 75% of run-line tickets and 64% of moneyline tickets back the Tigers, yet the line has crept the other way toward Houston. That is textbook reverse line movement, and it usually points to sharper money landing on the less popular side. When the tickets and the line disagree this clearly, the line tends to be the better guide.
The pitching matchup cuts against the play, however. Detroit’s Troy Melton has been excellent at 4-0 with a 2.56 ERA, while Houston’s Tatsuya Imai carries a bloated 6.15 ERA after a rough June. That contrast is the central tension of this game and the reason the price has not moved further.
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | +1.5 (-210) | -102 | U 9.0 (-120) |
| Detroit Tigers | -1.5 (+175) | -118 | O 9.0 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, June 25, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Houston Astros | 25% | 75% | Detroit Tigers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline (-102)
The case for Houston rests on the market signal. Reverse line movement against heavy public action on Detroit is a respected indicator, and the Astros pair it with the better record and the deeper roster. The case against is just as clear. Melton has been one of the better stories in the Detroit rotation, he pitches at home, and Imai’s June form gives little confidence in a head-to-head edge. Backing Imai to outduel Melton on paper is the obvious risk. For that reason, this is a lean built on the line move rather than the matchup itself, and a smaller stake fits the uncertainty.
Late Game — New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Fenway Park, Boston MA |
| When | Thursday, June 25 – 7:10 PM ET |
| TV | NESN / YES Network |
The Yankees and Red Sox renew their rivalry for the sixth time this season, and New York holds a 4-1 edge in the series so far. The visitors arrive at 48-31, while Boston has cooled to 32-46 overall. The Red Sox have been especially cold lately, going 3-7 over their last 10 games while hitting just .232 in that stretch.
New York sends Cam Schlittler to the mound, and he has been the story of the Yankees’ rotation. He carries an 8-3 record with a 1.71 ERA, and he just struck out 13 over six scoreless innings against the Reds. Boston answers with Connelly Early, a steadier left-hander at 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA. The strikeout stuff on the New York side is the difference-maker in the matchup.
The total has dropped from 8.0 at the open down to 7.5. That move signals the market expects a lower-scoring night, even with the usual rivalry energy in the ballpark. When a respected arm meets a slumping lineup, the number drifting down makes sense.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -1.5 (+105) | -163 | U 7.5 (+100) |
| Boston Red Sox | +1.5 (-125) | +137 | O 7.5 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, June 25, 2026. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox — Who Is the Public Betting?
| New York Yankees | 88% | 12% | Boston Red Sox |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
The Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (+100)
The case for the Under stacks up well. Schlittler’s dominant form, a cold Boston lineup, and a number that has already moved down all point in the same direction. The case against deserves attention too. Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue, rivalry games can turn into late bullpen slugfests, and Early is solid enough that the Yankees’ bats are not assured of staying quiet. The plus-money price on the Under at 7.5 adds enough value to tip the lean, but a one-run swing in either bullpen can flip a total like this.
Today’s MLB Best Bets Recap
To recap the three leans: the Athletics on the moneyline as Bay Area underdogs this afternoon, the Houston Astros on the moneyline in Detroit on the strength of reverse line movement, and the Under 7.5 in the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry at Fenway. That is two sides and a total, spread across the afternoon, early evening, and primetime windows of the slate.