The Philadelphia Phillies open a four-game road series against the Washington Nationals on Monday night, and the market reads this one as close to a coin flip. Washington sits as a slim home favorite at -115 on the moneyline, while Philadelphia comes back at -105.
The run line leans the other way, installing the Phillies as -1.5 favorites at +145. Our headline lean backs the visitors at a near-even number, yet the starting pitching keeps the game tight. Below we work through the starters, the total of 10, and where the value sits.
Last Updated: Monday, June 22, 2026
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| When | Monday, June 22 – 6:45 PM ET |
| TV | Nationals.TV and NBCS-PH |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Game Preview
The pitching matchup is the story, and it tilts the value debate. Washington hands the ball to left-hander Foster Griffin, who has been one of the staff's steadier arms. He carries a 7-2 record and a 3.32 ERA, with a tidy .222 opponent average and roughly 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. You can review Foster Griffin's 2026 form for the full profile. He also beat these same Phillies on March 30, striking out five in a Washington win.
Philadelphia counters with left-hander Jesús Luzardo. The strikeout stuff is real, as Jesús Luzardo's swing-and-miss numbers rank among the best on the staff. However, his 2026 results have been volatile, with strong stretches mixed in with rough outings. That inconsistency is the swing factor on Monday. When Luzardo locates, the Phillies are tough to beat. When he doesn't, the floor drops out quickly.
Both lineups arrive hot. Philadelphia has hit 16 home runs over its last 10 games, while Washington has matched the power surge with 14 of its own. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper anchor a deep Phillies order, and Harper enters having homered in two straight. For Washington, James Wood and C.J. Abrams provide the thump. Standings-wise, the Phillies (42-35) sit just ahead of the Nationals (40-38), so both clubs have real stakes in the NL East and wild-card races. Each side is also dealing with bullpen and rotation absences, which raises the stakes on the available arms.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS ODDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
| PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | -1.5 (+145) | -105 | U 10 (-110) |
| WASHINGTON NATIONALS | +1.5 (-170) | -115 | O 10 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, June 22, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds - Futures - Props
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS WASHINGTON NATIONALS WHO IS THE PUBLIC BETTING? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES | 43% | 57% | WASHINGTON NATIONALS |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Phillies vs Nationals Moneyline Prediction:
The run line is a tough ask here. At +145, the Phillies need a two-run win, and that is a stretch in a game the market grades as a near pick'em. The cleaner play is the moneyline. Philadelphia is the deeper, more talented roster, with a stronger rotation behind Luzardo and a more reliable late-inning group. Getting that team at -105, essentially even money, is the value angle. The fact that Washington is the nominal favorite at -115 reflects the matchup, not the overall talent gap.
The case against the Phillies is straightforward. Griffin has been the steadier starter this season, and Luzardo's volatility gives Washington a live path at home. The Nationals also took one of the earlier meetings behind Griffin. Still, the lines opened and held at these numbers, which signals balanced money rather than sharp conviction on either side. In a coin-flip spot, we would rather back the better roster at a fair price. For more daily angles, see our latest MLB best bets.
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-105)
Phillies vs Nationals Best Bet - Total Pick
The over is the lean on a total that already sits high at 10. Both bullpens have leaked runs lately, with Washington's staff posting a 5.17 ERA over its last 10 games and Philadelphia's at 4.40. Meanwhile, both lineups are slugging, having combined for 30 home runs across their last 10 contests. With two power-heavy orders and tired relief corps, late-inning runs are in play.
The counterpoint matters, though. Ten is a demanding number, and it requires 11 combined runs to cash. Griffin's .222 opponent average suggests he can keep Philadelphia quiet early, and Luzardo's strikeout stuff can produce zeros when he is sharp. If both starters work deep, the under is live. We side with the over given the bullpen fatigue, but this is a moderate-conviction lean rather than a strong one. You can track how Washington's bats have been trending in recent coverage.
The Pick: Over 10 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The bonus angle centers on Bryce Harper and his history at his former home park. Harper has homered in two straight and owns a 1.009 OPS in 50 games at Nationals Park since joining Philadelphia. With two long balls already in his current stretch, he is a logical name to watch in the run-scoring props. The risk is obvious: one swing does not guarantee a productive night, and Griffin has the profile to neutralize the top of the order.
The other thing to watch is the late innings. Both managers may be working with thinned-out relief, so a close game after the sixth could swing on whichever bullpen blinks first. That scenario supports both the over and the Phillies side, given Philadelphia's stronger back end. To recap our card for Monday: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-105) and Over 10 (-110), with Bryce Harper's form at Nationals Park as the bonus watch.
MLB Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction FAQ
What time does the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals game start?
First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET on Monday, June 22, 2026, at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
What channel is the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals game on?
The game is broadcast on Nationals.TV and NBCS-PH.
Who is pitching for the Nationals on Monday?
Left-hander Foster Griffin is the probable starter for Washington. He enters with a 7-2 record and a 3.32 ERA this season.
Who is pitching for the Phillies on Monday?
Left-hander Jesús Luzardo is the probable starter for Philadelphia. He is a high-strikeout arm who has been inconsistent across the 2026 season.
Who is favored in the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals game?
The game is close to a coin flip. Washington is a slight home favorite at -115 on the moneyline, with Philadelphia priced at -105.