The U.S. Open returns to Shinnecock Hills on Thursday, and the third major of the year carries a familiar headline. Scottie Scheffler arrives as the heavy favorite, chasing the one major missing from his résumé and the career grand slam that would come with it.
This is a pre-tournament predictions article, so we are making actual picks across the full 156 man field. The favorite tops our card, but the value lies a little further down the board with a player who already owns one of the most famous rounds in this venue's history. Below, we break down our top pick, a longer-priced value play, and two angles in the secondary markets.
Last Updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026
2026 U.S. OPEN FIRST ROUND DATE, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, Southampton, New York |
| When | Thursday, June 18 – coverage begins 6:30 a.m. ET (Round 1) |
| TV | USA Network, NBC and Peacock |
2026 U.S Open Pre-Tournament Report
The field is the strongest of any week in golf, with 156 players teeing it up and the cut set at the top 60 and ties. Nearly every ranked contender is here, from world No. 1 Scheffler to Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and a deep block of LIV and DP World Tour qualifiers. There are no marquee absentees to flag at the top of the board. Defending champion J.J. Spaun is back as well, a year after his closing 64-foot birdie putt won the 2025 edition at Oakmont. The stakes are higher than ever, with the USGA raising the prize money to a record $22.5 million purse for 2026.
Shinnecock Hills plays as a par 70 stretching to 7,440 yards. The layout is a links-style test with fescue rough, firm and exposed greens, and wind that can swing scoring sharply from morning to afternoon. It rewards precise iron play and patience far more than raw length. History backs that up. When Shinnecock last hosted in 2018, it produced a brutal, even-par winning score, so accuracy off the tee and around the greens should matter most. Recent U.S. Open winners reflect that pattern, with elite ball-strikers and grinders rising to the top.
2026 U.S. OPEN ODDS TO WIN | |
|---|---|
| Name | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +600 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
| Jon Rahm | +1600 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3000 |
| Patrick Reed | +3000 |
Odds accurate as of June 18, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest Golf Odds - Props
For a deeper look at how the market is shaped this week, see our 2026 U.S. Open odds preview.
Top Pick to Win — Scottie Scheffler
The Pick: Scottie Scheffler to win (+600)
The case for Scheffler is straightforward. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained total and tee to green, the two metrics that travel best to a demanding U.S. Open setup. He has banked seven top-five finishes in 12 starts this season, and he has not finished worse than T24 anywhere. His U.S. Open record is also stellar, with four top-10s in his last five starts in this championship. At Shinnecock, where iron play and short-game control decide the week, that profile fits cleanly. A win would also complete the career grand slam, the only prize that has eluded him.
The case against is mostly about price and conversion. At +600, the market gives him little room for error in a 156-player field. He has won just once in 2026, an early victory at The American Express, despite finishing second three times and third twice since. In other words, he keeps contending without closing. His approach play, normally his separator, has dipped from its peak even as his putting has improved. PGA Tour analysts still rank Scheffler and McIlroy at the top of the betting board, so backing him is the safe read. The value-minded bettor may prefer to play him in props rather than at a short outright number.
Value Play — Tommy Fleetwood
The Pick: Tommy Fleetwood to win (+2000)
Few players in this field have a better Shinnecock story. In 2018, Fleetwood closed with a final-round 63 that tied the lowest score in U.S. Open history, finishing runner-up one shot behind Brooks Koepka. He clearly knows how to attack this course. His 2026 form supports the pick as well, with five top-10 finishes this season, including a strong showing at the Memorial. As an elite ball-striker, he is exactly the type of player this accuracy-first setup tends to reward.
The case against centers on the finish line. Fleetwood has a long history of contending in big events without breaking through for a major title. A U.S. Open Sunday at Shinnecock is the most stressful test in golf, and the question with him has always been conversion rather than ball-striking. Still, at +2000 the price reflects that doubt, and the upside is a player who has already produced a historic round on this exact property.
Tournament Outlook — Picks and Final Thoughts
The secondary markets offer two more angles worth a look. In the Top American Player market, Cameron Young stands out at +1100. He sits behind only Scheffler (+330) and Schauffele (+1000), yet he is one of the longest and most accomplished Americans on the board. The case against is the depth of the American contingent, since DeChambeau, Henley and others can spoil it. The upside is a fair price on a player with the game to be the top domestic finisher.
For bettors who think the favorite is beatable, the "Winner Without Scottie Scheffler" market lists Rory McIlroy at +1000. McIlroy is a multiple major champion and the second choice on the overall board at +1200. Removing Scheffler shortens his number only slightly while improving the field math. The case against is McIlroy's own inconsistency, as he can post a missed cut as easily as a win. As a course strategy note, expect the par-5 16th and the reachable par-5 fifth to be the main scoring chances, while the long par-3 second and the closing stretch should play as the toughest holes. A winning score around even par would fit Shinnecock's history.
To recap, here is our full card for the week. First, Scottie Scheffler to win at +600. Second, Tommy Fleetwood to win at +2000 as the value play. Third, Cameron Young as Top American Player at +1100. Fourth, Rory McIlroy in the Winner Without Scottie Scheffler market at +1000. Each carries clear risk, so size positions accordingly and shop the board before Thursday's first tee.
FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +600 on TheSpread.com, ahead of Rory McIlroy at +1200 and Jon Rahm at +1600.
When does the 2026 U.S. Open start?
Round 1 is Thursday, June 18, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, with television coverage beginning at 6:30 a.m. ET.
What channel is the 2026 U.S. Open on?
Coverage is carried across USA Network, NBC and Peacock throughout the four rounds.
Who won the U.S. Open last year?
J.J. Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont, his first major title.
What is the par and yardage at Shinnecock Hills?
Shinnecock Hills plays as a par 70 measuring 7,440 yards for the 2026 U.S. Open.
What is the purse for the 2026 U.S. Open?
The 2026 U.S. Open features a $22.5 million purse, with the winner earning $4.5 million.