The Golden State Valkyries host the Phoenix Mercury in a Commissioner's Cup matchup at Chase Center on Tuesday, and the home side opens as a clear favorite. Golden State sits at 6-5 and just pushed the defending-champion Las Vegas Aces to the wire on the road. Phoenix arrives at 4-8 but riding its first two-game winning streak of the season. The line tells one story, yet the Mercury's recent form and the injury report complicate it. Our headline pick leans toward the visitors, and we will explain why below.
Last Updated: Tuesday, June 9, 2026
PHOENIX MERCURY VS GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES JUNE 9, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| When | Tuesday, June 9 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | KPIX (Bay Area), KOVR (Sacramento) |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Game Preview
Golden State has built its identity on defense in its second WNBA season. The Valkyries hold opponents to 80.5 points per game, one of the stingiest marks in the league. However, they enter this one cooling off. They have dropped two straight and three of their last four, with all three losses coming against elite competition. They fell 84-79 at Las Vegas on Saturday despite a career-high 27 points from Gabby Williams. Veronica Burton continues to steady the backcourt, and coach Natalie Nakase has her group competing in every game.
Phoenix, meanwhile, has finally found some traction. The Mercury broke a six-game losing streak in Seattle, then won at Portland 78-72 on June 5. Notably, they did it shorthanded. Veteran DeWanna Bonner posted a season-high 19 points off a versatile night while leading scorers Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper sat out. Thomas, the league's all-time triple-double leader, is listed as probable with a left calf issue. Copper is questionable with a left hip problem. According to the WNBA injury report, Copper's status remains unsettled, which gives this matchup real uncertainty.
The season series favors Golden State so far. The Valkyries beat Phoenix by 16 in their home opener earlier this spring. Still, that meeting came under very different circumstances for both rosters. For the broader picture, Golden State sits at 6-5 while Phoenix is 4-8 in the current standings. This is also a Commissioner's Cup contest with group-stage stakes for both clubs.
PHOENIX MERCURY VS GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES ODDS | |||
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| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
| Phoenix Mercury | +8 (-105) | +285 | U 162 (+100) |
| Golden State Valkyries | -8 (-115) | -370 | O 162 (-120) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds - Futures - Props
PHOENIX MERCURY VS GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES WHO IS THE PUBLIC BETTING? | |||
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| PHOENIX MERCURY | 39% | 61% | GOLDEN STATE VALKYRIES |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
ATS Pick — Phoenix Mercury +8
The Pick: Phoenix Mercury +8 (-105)
Eight points is a steep number to lay in the WNBA, and the Mercury have earned some trust lately. They covered and won twice in a row even without their two leading scorers. That speaks to depth and to Bonner's ability to fill multiple roles. Phoenix is also 3-4 against the spread profile on the road, so the travel does not scare us here. The line has crept from -7.5 to -8, and the public sits 61% on Golden State's spread and 86% on its moneyline. That kind of one-sided money on a home favorite often inflates the number slightly.
The case against Phoenix is straightforward. Golden State plays hard at home, where it is 4-2, and its defense can smother a banged-up offense. If Copper sits and Thomas is limited by the calf, Phoenix may struggle to score enough to stay within a touchdown. The Valkyries also won the first meeting by 16, which lingers in the back of the mind. Still, at this price, we would rather take the points with a team trending up than lay a big number with one that just lost three of four.
Total Pick — Under 162
The Pick: Under 162 (+100)
The total opened at 161.5 and ticked up to 162, but the matchup points the other way. Golden State's defense ranks among the league's best at 80.5 points allowed per game. Phoenix, playing without full firepower, leaned on a controlled 78-72 win at Portland in its last outing. That is a recipe for a slower, grind-it-out pace. If the Mercury are again short a scorer or two, possessions should come at a premium.
On the other side, Golden State averages a respectable 85.8 points at home, and Williams is shooting with confidence right now. A healthy Thomas and Copper would also raise Phoenix's ceiling and push tempo. However, the recent body of work from both teams leans defensive. We will side with the under and the trend toward tighter scoring.
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
For a small-stake swing, the Phoenix moneyline at +285 is worth a look. Bonus Angle: Phoenix Mercury moneyline +285. The Mercury have proven they can win without their stars, and an outright upset returns a healthy payout. The flip side is real, of course. Golden State is a deserved favorite at home, the -370 price reflects genuine separation, and that 16-point result from the first meeting is a warning. Treat this as a sprinkle, not a centerpiece.
To recap our card for Mercury at Valkyries: we lean Phoenix Mercury +8 (-105) on the spread, Under 162 (+100) on the total, and a small play on the Phoenix Mercury moneyline at +285. Each pick rests on the same read. A trending-up underdog and a strong home defense should keep this game closer and lower-scoring than the market expects.
WNBA Mercury vs. Valkyries Prediction FAQ
What time does the Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries game start?
Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET (7:00 PM PT) on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, at Chase Center in San Francisco.
What channel is the Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries game on?
The game airs locally on KPIX in the Bay Area and KOVR in Sacramento.
Who is favored in the Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries game?
Golden State is favored by 8 points. The Valkyries are -370 on the moneyline, while Phoenix is the +285 underdog.
Who won the last meeting between Phoenix and Golden State?
Golden State won the first meeting of the season, beating Phoenix by 16 points in the Valkyries' home opener.
Are Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper playing tonight?
Alyssa Thomas is listed as probable with a left calf issue. Kahleah Copper is questionable with a left hip problem, so her status is worth tracking before tip-off.
For more from our coverage, see whether the Lynx would continue to own the Valkyries and our look at the Storm's spread against the Mercury.