The Mercury vs. Liberty matchup is drawing attention from WNBA bettors Friday night, as Phoenix looks to avoid a fifth straight loss while New York searches for back-to-back wins after finally snapping its own skid earlier this week. These teams just met Wednesday in Brooklyn, where the Liberty controlled the second half and pulled away for an 84-74 victory.
Now the rematch shifts into an interesting betting spot. Phoenix is desperate, New York is still working through lineup issues, and the total sits at 170.5 points. With both teams adjusting after seeing each other just two days ago, expect a tighter defensive approach and a slower-paced game compared to what the number suggests.
Mercury vs. Liberty DATE, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Barclays Center – Brooklyn, New York |
| When | Friday, May 29, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ION |
Betting Odds & Public Betting
The Liberty enter Friday night as 5.5-point home favorites after beating Phoenix by 10 points earlier this week. The total is currently sitting at 170.5 points.
Phoenix has struggled offensively during its four-game losing streak, scoring 74 points or fewer in three of those contests. Meanwhile, New York is still trying to rediscover consistency offensively despite Wednesday’s win.
The first meeting between these teams finished with 158 total points, comfortably under Friday’s number. Even with Marine Johannes exploding for seven three-pointers and 21 points, the game still stayed well below the total.
Liberty vs. Mercury ODDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
| Mercury | +5.5 (-170) | +200 | U 170.5 (-110) |
| Liberty | -5.5 (+145) | -245 | O 170.5 (-110) |
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Key Notes & Storylines
Phoenix continues searching for answers offensively, but there were some encouraging signs Wednesday. Natasha Mack matched her career high with 14 points while Kahleah Copper continued carrying the scoring load with 19 points. Copper has been one of the few reliable offensive pieces for the Mercury, averaging 18.8 points per game.
Still, Phoenix has struggled generating consistent half-court offense, especially late in games. The Mercury also continue turning the ball over too frequently, which becomes even more dangerous against New York’s transition attack.
For the Liberty, Wednesday’s win may have been exactly what they needed after dropping three straight games. Jonquel Jones dominated the interior again with 17 points and 12 rebounds, recording her second consecutive double-double.
However, New York still isn’t operating at full strength. Sabrina Ionescu has appeared in just one game this season because of back soreness, leaving the Liberty without one of their primary creators and scorers. While Johannes stepped up in a major way Wednesday, repeating seven made three-pointers is unlikely.
The familiarity factor also matters in quick rematches like this. Defensive adjustments usually improve the second time around within a short span, especially after both teams spent two days studying the same matchup.
Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction
The best value in this matchup is the under 170.5 points.
Wednesday’s game already showed the blueprint for how this matchup plays out. Phoenix struggles creating efficient offense for four quarters, while New York is still missing offensive rhythm without a fully healthy Sabrina Ionescu.
Even with Johannes having a career shooting night, the first meeting still landed at only 158 total points. Expect both defenses to make additional adjustments in the rematch, especially Phoenix after getting embarrassed during New York’s massive third-quarter run.
The Mercury will likely try slowing the tempo and emphasizing half-court possessions to avoid another collapse, while the Liberty should lean heavily on defense and rebounding again behind Jonquel Jones.
Expect a competitive but lower-scoring rematch.
Final Score Prediction: Liberty 84, Mercury 78
Best Bet: Under 170.5