Last Updated on March 29, 2026 10:38 am by Anthony Rome
Sunday’s MLB card offers a strong mix of pitching matchups, early-season value, and exploitable betting angles. With rotations still settling in and offenses finding rhythm, this slate creates opportunities for sharp bettors to get ahead of the market. In our Sunday MLB Best Bets March 29 column, we’re targeting three spots: a trustworthy favorite in Toronto, a low-scoring pitching duel in Houston, and an underdog value play in St. Louis.
Blue Jays -148 vs. Athletics
Pitching Matchup: Luis Morales vs. Eric Lauer
Toronto is in a prime bounce-back and control spot here, and the pitching matchup is a major reason why.
Eric Lauer enters this game off what’s widely considered the best season of his career, giving the Blue Jays a reliable veteran arm who limits damage and keeps hitters off balance. On the other side, Oakland rookie Luis Morales has struggled to adjust at the professional level, including a rough spring where he was hit hard and consistently put into trouble spots.
That’s a dangerous combination against a Blue Jays lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and a deep supporting cast that can capitalize on mistakes early.
Toronto is also at home and clearly the more complete team. Early-season matchups like this often come down to stability—and the Blue Jays have a massive edge there.
Betting Pick: Blue Jays -148
Angels vs. Astros UNDER 9 Runs
Pitching Matchup: Jack Kochanowicz vs. Tatsuya Imai
This total is all about projection versus perception—and there’s value on the under.
Tatsuya Imai comes into this matchup with strong expectations after dominating overseas and already being priced as a significant favorite. His advanced pitch mix and strikeout ability make him a tough first look for opposing lineups. Meanwhile, Jack Kochanowicz has shown flashes of swing-and-miss upside despite inconsistent results, including metrics that suggest improvement is coming.
Both offenses are still working through early-season timing issues, and this isn’t a spot where either lineup is in peak form yet. With Imai capable of controlling the pace and Kochanowicz likely better than surface-level numbers indicate, runs should be limited.
Also worth noting: totals in the 8.5–9 range early in the season tend to lean under when pitchers still have the upper hand.
Betting Pick: UNDER 9 Runs
Cardinals +105 vs. Rays
Pitching Matchup: Steven Matz vs. Dustin May
This is a classic value underdog spot—and one worth backing.
Steven Matz looked sharp this spring, finishing with 11 scoreless innings. That said, asking him to maintain that level immediately in the regular season—especially on the road—is a different challenge (even in a familiar spot in St. Louis).
On the flip side, Dustin May gives St. Louis a high-upside arm capable of missing bats and controlling games when healthy. While the Cardinals’ rotation has been questioned overall, there’s still belief in May’s ability to deliver in spots like this.
At plus money, you’re getting the home team with comparable pitching upside and a chance to capitalize if Matz regresses toward his career norms.
That’s exactly the kind of early-season edge bettors should be targeting.
Betting Pick: Cardinals +105
Sunday MLB Best Bets March 29
- Blue Jays -148
- Angels/Astros under 9
- Cardinals +105