Sunday has more than one-third of the league in action as the first week of March 2026 continues. It features 6 contests on a moderate NBA slate with start times ranging from 7:00 PM ET to 10:30 PM ET. Can the Knicks cover the 4-point spread as home underdogs against the Thunder? Will the Hawks win by 2+ points at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee against the Bucks? I’ll make picks for both contests below. Read on for our Wednesday NBA Best Bets March 4 article.
NBA Best Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -4 over New York Knicks
I like Oklahoma City here. The Thunder are well-positioned to cover the 4-point spread as road favorites against the Knicks. Oklahoma City has proven reliable in this specific role, posting a 15-13 ATS record as road favorites and a solid 16-14 ATS mark on the road overall this season.
The Thunder’s reliability shows in non-conference play, where they hold a 10-9 ATS record in 2025-26. Dominance in this matchup is also a factor; the Thunder are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against New York. With their momentum and historical edge, expect OKC to pull away late.
Final score projection: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 118, NEW YORK KNICKS 112.
NBA Best Bet: Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 over Atlanta Hawks
I’d take Milwaukee in this contest. The Bucks are primed to cover the 1.5-point spread as home underdogs against the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. Milwaukee has consistently risen to the occasion in this role, boasting a 20-18 ATS record as an underdog this season. Their recent form is also encouraging, with a 5-4 ATS mark over their last 9 games.
Historically, the Bucks have controlled this matchup, going 6-4 straight up and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Hawks. Given their home-court advantage and proven ability to outperform expectations as underdogs, the Bucks should secure an outright victory.
Final score projection: MILWAUKEE BUCKS 120, ATLANTA HAWKS 114.
Wednesday NBA Best Bets March 4
- Oklahoma City Thunder -4
- Milwaukee Bucks +1.5
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