Thursday has 4 Eastern Conference teams and 6 Western Conference clubs in action as the final week of February 2026 concludes. It features 5 contests on a light NBA slate with start times ranging from 1:00 PM ET to 9:30 PM ET. Can the Heat cover the 3.5-point spread as home underdogs against the Rockets? Will the Lakers win by 4+ points at the Chase Center in San Francisco against the Warriors? I’ll make picks for both contests below. Read on for our Saturday NBA Best Bets Feb. 28 article.
NBA Best Bet: Miami Heat +3.5 over Houston Rockets
I like Miami here. The Heat are primed to cover the 3.5-point spread due to their trademark defensive consistency and ability to bounce back. Boasting a stellar 20-8 ATS record following a loss this season, Miami consistently tightens up its defensive and offensive execution after a setback.
Their reliability as an underdog is equally impressive, going 18-12 ATS when catching points and a dominant 5-2 ATS mark as home underdogs this year. With a 15-11 ATS record in non-conference play, the Heat’s disciplined zone defense should frustrate Houston’s young core, keeping this contest within a possession or leading to an outright home victory.
Final score projection: MIAMI HEAT 112, HOUSTON ROCKETS 110.
NBA Best Bet: Golden State Warriors +3.5 over Los Angeles Lakers
I’d take the Warriors in this game. Golden State is well-positioned to cover the 3.5-point spread because of their significant rest advantage and home-court energy at the Chase Center. Historically disciplined in these spots, Golden State is 9-7 ATS when playing with a rest advantage and a sharp 6-5 ATS when playing on 2 or 3 days of rest this season.
The Warriors’ familiarity with this matchup is a major asset, as they’ve posted a 5-4 ATS mark in their last 9 games against Los Angeles. By utilizing their fresh legs to push the transition game and exploit the Lakers’ sluggish defensive rotations, the Warriors should control the tempo and keep this contest within a single possession or pull off the outright home upset.
Final score projection: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 116, LOS ANGELES LAKERS 112.
Saturday NBA Best Bets Feb. 28
- Miami Heat +3.5
- Golden State Warriors +3.5
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