Friday NBA Best Bets Feb. 20: Can the Mavs cover as double-digit underdogs?

Friday is the second day of regular-season games after the NBA All-Star break. It features 9 contests on a nearly full NBA slate with start times ranging from 7:00 PM ET to 10:00 PM ET. Can the Mavericks cover the 12.5-point spread as road underdogs against the Timberwolves? Will the Pelicans defeat the Bucks by 5+ points at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans? I’ll pick both contests below. Read on for our Friday NBA Best Bets Feb. 20 article.

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NBA Best Bet: Dallas Mavericks +12.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves

I like Dallas here. The Dallas Mavericks are primed to cover the 12.5-point spread as road underdogs because of their recent success against Minnesota, posting a 6-4 ATS record in their last ten meetings with the Timberwolves.

While the Timberwolves are formidable, their season-long betting trends reveal significant vulnerabilities: they are just 11-14 ATS as home favorites, 15-21 ATS in conference play, and 14-19 ATS coming off a win in 2025-26.

Dallas’s ability to keep games competitive late, combined with Minnesota’s struggles to cover large numbers at home, makes the double-digit cushion a highly attractive wager. Final score projection: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 118, DALLAS MAVERICKS 109.

NBA Best Bet: Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans

I’d take Milwaukee in this game. The Bucks are well-positioned to cover the 4.5-point spread as road underdogs on Friday night. Milwaukee has thrived in this role with a 10-9 ATS record as a road underdog and a solid 17-15 ATS mark as underdogs overall this season.

Historically, Milwaukee has dominated this matchup, going 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against New Orleans. Furthermore, the Bucks have been sharp when given extra preparation time, boasting a perfect 2-0 ATS record when playing on 4+ days of rest this season.

The extended layoff and historical dominance suggest that the Bucks will keep it close or pull off the outright upset. Final score projection: MILWAUKEE BUCKS 114, NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 112.