Last Updated on November 13, 2025 11:22 pm by Alex Becker
NEW YORK — Miami brings its fast-paced, full-court attack into Madison Square Garden for an NBA Cup group play showdown on Friday night. Our Heat vs. Knicks prediction weighs whether the Knicks’ rebounding edge can hold up over four quarters.
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💸 Compare Live Heat vs Knicks Odds
Heat vs. Knicks Odds: ML, Spread, Total
- Moneyline: Heat +155 / Knicks -185
- Spread: Heat +4.5 (-115) / Knicks -4.5 (-105)
- Total: 235.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
- Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- TV: Prime Video
Heat vs. Knicks Matchup Breakdown
- Pace & Shot Profile: Miami (1st in pace) plays with the league’s fastest tempo, leaning into threes, shots at the rim, and free-throw attempt creation, while New York (26th in pace) plays more deliberately and uses more half-court, isolation sets.
- On-Ball Creation: Miami relies heavily on Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. for primary ball-screen scoring. With Jalen Brunson out, New York will lean on Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby to create offense for themselves and others.
- Interior & Glass: Miami is 25th in rebound rate and 21st in opponent points in the paint per game this year. New York is 6th in rebound rate and 5th in opponent points in the paint per game this season.
- Injury/Status: Miami: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Terry Rozier are out. New York: Jalen Brunson is out, Kevin McCullar Jr. is questionable.
Standings Stakes & Betting Angles
- Miami sits atop Group C in NBA Cup play with a record of 1-0. New York is 0-1 in NBA Cup play this season, and a win could vault them into a tie for first place in the group.
- Totals note: Miami’s isolation sets and New York’s half-court grind typically suppress offense, but the Knicks’ offensive rebounding could inflate scoring via extra possessions. A move toward 230 would signal strong under support; a rise toward 235 would reflect confidence in both teams’ second-chance offense.
Heat vs. Knicks Prediction & Expert Pick
Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-105). Our Heat vs. Knicks prediction leans on New York’s strong interior presence and offensive rebounding edge. Additionally, the Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 7-1 ATS as the home team this year.
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