Last Updated on November 14, 2025 9:38 pm by Alex Becker
GRAPEVINE, TX— Our College Football Saturday Best Bets zero in on value pockets across the slate, focusing on key numbers, matchup leverage, and where public money is creating price distortion. As always, we pair verified odds with market context and no-nonsense reasoning.
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College Football Week 11 Best Bets
Best Bet #1 — #7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech
Current odds: BYU +10.5 (-110) / Texas Tech -10.5 (-110)
Why it makes the card: BYU is in a rare spot as an 8-0 team getting double-digits in a conference game. A few other numbers make the case for the Cougars covering the 10.5 points on Saturday afternoon. BYU is 7-1 ATS as an underdog and 3-1 ATS after a bye since the start of last season. Additionally, the Cougars are 7-0 ATS when playing with the rest advantage and 8-6-1 ATS in conference games since the beginning of last season. BYU plus the points is the pick.
Pick: BYU +10.5.
Best Bet #2 — #5 Georgia at Mississippi State
Current odds: Georgia -9.5 (-111) / Mississippi State +9.5 (-109)
Why it makes the card: This is a potentially dangerous trap game for Georgia. Next weekend, Georgia will host #11 Texas in a monster game that could decide who makes it to the SEC championship game or who still has a chance at making the College Football Playoff. Conversely, this is a good spot for Mississippi State. Mississippi State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games including 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home tilts. Additionally, the team from Starkville is 9-4 ATS in conference games and 4-3 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season. I’ll take the home underdog Mississippi State in this one.
Pick: Mississippi State +9.5.
Best Bet #3 — #3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri
Current odds: Texas A&M -7 (-108) / Missouri +7 (-112)
Why it makes the card: Missouri is one of the more underrated teams in the country this season. A lot of that has to do with their head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Since Drinkwitz became the head coach in Columbia in 2020, Missouri is 9-3-1 ATS as a home underdog, 8-5-1 ATS after a bye, and 24-17 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest. The Tigers are also 13-9 ATS after a loss and 25-20-1 ATS in conference games since the start of the 2020 campaign. Texas A&M is undefeated, but they may have an emotional letdown after their 49-25 drubbing of LSU two weeks ago. For all of those reasons, I’m taking Mizzou here.
Pick: Missouri +7.
College Football Week 11 Best Bets — Long-Shot Looks
Long Shot #1 — Wake Forest at #14 Virginia
Current odds: Wake Forest +6.5 (-110) / Virginia -6.5 (-110)
Why it’s live: Virginia is 8-1 overall and 5-0 in ACC play this season. The Cavaliers are the only team in the ACC without a conference loss on the campaign. But they’ll face their nemesis, Wake Forest, on Saturday. In the last 7 games between these two teams, Wake Forest is 5-2 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread. What’s more, the Demon Deacons are 3-2 ATS as an underdog and 5-3 ATS overall this season. This is a long shot because Wake Forest is 5-3 straight up overall and 2-3 in conference play this year. But I think the Demon Deacons can hang with a Virginia team that seems bound to catch a conference loss before the season is through. Wake Forest is the pick.
Lean: Wake Forest +6.5.
Long Shot #2 — Navy at #10 Notre Dame
Current odds: Navy +27.5 (-112) / Notre Dame -27.5 (-108)
Why it’s live: Navy is having a solid season. The Midshipmen are 7-1 straight up overall and 5-1 in conference play this year. Navy leads the country in rushing with 296.3 yards per game and ranks 29th in the FBS in scoring offense this year with 32.3 points per game. 27 points is a lot of wiggle room for the Midshipmen to cover, and it should be made easier because Notre Dame has a big game at #24 Pittsburgh next weekend. It likely won’t be pretty, as the weather will be 42 degrees and rainy, but I think Navy can keep it within 4 touchdowns in South Bend on Saturday.
Lean: Navy +27.5.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Saturday Slate)
- BYU at Texas Tech — Tickets: BYU 37% · Texas Tech 63%
- Georgia at Mississippi State — Tickets: Georgia 30% · Mississippi State 70%
- Texas A&M at Missouri — Tickets: Texas A&M 43% · Missouri 57%
- Wake Forest at Virginia — Tickets: Wake Forest 63% · Virginia 37%
- Navy at Notre Dame — Tickets: Navy 46% · Notre Dame 54%
Trends & Notes
- Key numbers matter: 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 21 shape value. Missouri +7 and BYU +10.5 sit at or above sensitive thresholds.
- Home underdogs: Both Mississippi State and Missouri are getting at least a touchdown at home against a conference opponent.
- Market preferences: Public favorites (Georgia, Notre Dame) create opportunities for value by taking the underdog.
Our College Football Saturday Best Bets
- BYU
- Mississippi State
- Missouri
- Long-shot leans: Wake Forest, Navy
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