Last Updated on November 2, 2025 3:49 pm by Michael Cash
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NFL Week 9 4PM Best Bets — Picks & Predictions
Jaguars at Raiders — Pick: Under 44.5
Market: JAX −2.5 (−105) / LV +2.5 (−115) · Total 44.5 (−105/−115) now 44 (-110) 3:50PM . Jacksonville’s defense is built to rally-and-tackle, and Las Vegas plays slow with a low early-down pass rate. Therefore, sustained 10+ play drives and red-zone field goals are live outcomes. We prefer Under 44.5 down to 44. Buy back off if weather/injury news pops the number below 44 early.
Saints at Rams — Pick: Saints +14
Market: NO +14 (−110) / LAR −14 (−110) Now 14.5 Updated 3:50PM Total 44.0. Two touchdowns is a premium in the NFL. New Orleans’ defense can limit explosives and force the Rams to finish long series. Meanwhile, late-game variance favors a +14 cover (backdoor live). We’d avoid +13.5; if books offer −115 at +14, it’s still playable.
NFL Week 9 4PM Best Bets: Chiefs at Bills — Pick: Over 52.5
Market: KC −2 (−110) / BUF +2 (−110) · Total 52.5 (−110) now 53 (-105/-115) updated 3:50PM. Both offenses rank top-tier in early-down success and scripted efficiency. Because pace accelerates in close games, fourth-quarter possessions stretch, and coaching aggressiveness rises on fourth down, we like the Over 52.5. Buy up to 53; above 53.5, reduce stake.
How to play the late window like a pro
- Key numbers & hooks: Protect 14 on Saints; protect 44/45 on JAX–LV totals; watch 53 on KC–BUF.
- Public vs sharps: Track consensus, but follow price action. Use our NFL public betting chart to spot fades and timing windows.
- Beat the close: Read our CLV guide and line-shopping primer. Keep the NFL hub open for injuries and weather updates.
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