Last Updated on October 5, 2025 8:23 am by Michael Cash
MLB Best Bets for October 5, 2025: With the Division Series heating up, today’s slate zeros in on two marquee matchups. Our MLB best bets for October 5, 2025 blend moneyline value, bullpen leverage, and public-betting context. For deeper angles and fresh analysis, browse our latest MLB betting articles and monitor real-time sentiment on the MLB public betting chart.
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Sunday MLB Best Bets (10/5)
Yankees at Blue Jays — Moneyline: NYY -160 (4:08 PM ET)
Play: Yankees ML (-160). After dropping Game 1, New York turns to top-end swing-and-miss and platoon power to pressure Toronto’s middle innings. The matchup projects cleaner for the Yankees’ RH thump against a Jays pen that just logged heavy leverage outs.
Tigers at Mariners — Moneyline: DET -133 (8:03 PM ET)
Play: Tigers ML (-133). With Tarik Skubal lined up and Detroit controlling contact quality in Game 1, the Tigers’ run prevention plus late-inning strikeout depth grades out as the higher-floor side on the road.
Yankees at Blue Jays — Alt RL: NYY -1.5 (+115)
Play: Yankees -1.5 (+115). If New York gets early lift and wins the BB/K battle, the path-to-cover includes margin. Small stake profile, but the payoff fits the matchup if the bats get to Toronto’s middle relief.
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Today’s MLB Long Shot Picks
Blue Jays ML +120 vs. Yankees
Sprinkle: If Toronto’s RH power carries again and they get a clean bridge to the ninth, the plus price at home is live.
Mariners ML +113 vs. Tigers
Sprinkle: Castillo’s swing-and-miss upside plus home park run suppression offers paths to a tight home win.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only)
Track live splits on our MLB public betting chart. Morning snapshot:
- Yankees–Blue Jays: Public on Yankees (~70% ML) — opposite our Blue Jays long-shot sprinkle. Comparison: Public on Yankees, value may lie on Toronto.
- Tigers–Mariners: Public on Tigers (~62% ML) — aligned with our Tigers ML best bet; note contrarian case exists on Seattle at plus money.
📊 View live MLB public betting percentages
Trends & Notes
- Postseason Game 2s often compress totals; early runs matter — monitor first-5 live markets.
- High-K bullpens with two+ swing-and-miss arms retain value even when starters exit early.
- Home park effects: Rogers Centre boosts RH pull power; T-Mobile suppresses barrels to center.
Today’s Card (ET)
- 4:08 PM — Yankees at Blue Jays — Pick: Yankees ML (-160)
- 8:03 PM — Tigers at Mariners — Pick: Tigers ML (-133)
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