- This topic has 1 reply, 1 voice, and was last updated 8 months, 1 week ago by .
Viewing 1 reply thread
Viewing 1 reply thread
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
Ive been tweaking the model again, lets see how it does tonight…
WKU at Delaware| WKU 34β27 | 62% W | WKU +2.5 β 63% | 61 pts β Under 52% | WKU -130 / WKU -3.5 | Med
Charlotte at USF | USF 45β13 | 95% U | USF -27.5 β 58% | 58 pts β Over 55% | USF -1900 / USF -28.5 | Med
New Mexico at San JosΓ© State | SJSU 31β28 | 56% S | SJSU -2.5 β 51% | 59 pts β Over 52% | SJSU -125 / SJSU -1.5 | Low-Med
West Virginia at #23 BYU | BYU 27β7 | 88% B | BYU -19.5 β 52% | 34 pts β Under 64% | BYU -730 / BYU -17.5 | Med
Colorado State at San Diego State | SDSU 23β16 | 65% S | SDSU -5.5 β 53% | 39 pts β Under 55% | SDSU -185 / SDSU -4.5 | Med
Key:
* Win% = model win probability for listed winner
* Cover vs Line = probability of covering current market line
* Fair ML/Spread = price & spread implied by our model
* Conf = overall model confidence in the pick
Top Drivers (condensed):
* WKU>DEL: WKU pass O vs DEL step-up pass D; neutral weather.
* CLT>USF: USF explosiveness gap; pace; home field.
* UNM>SJSU: QB duel β volatility; slight home edge SJSU.
* WVU>BYU: BYU run D + ground game; lower total.
* CSU>SDSU: SDSU defensive edge; slower, lower-total script.
β For informational and educational purposes only; not betting advice.
[/code]
—
## Option B) **Markdown (Reddit/Discourse/GitHub)**
Results 6-4, slight improvement. Will keep tweaking, no time today, more picks next week, shooting for 80%
Wins
WKU
SJST
SJST / NM OVER
USF
USF OVER
SDST
Losses
WKU/DEL UNDER
BYU
BYU UNDER
SDST UNDER