Last Updated on September 30, 2025 9:50 am by Anthony Rome

This winner-take-all semifinal swings on matchups and guts. The Fever vs Aces Game 5 prediction is about whether Indiana’s surprise run — powered by Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston — can survive one more hostile night in Las Vegas. Or, whether the Aces’ size, depth and home court finally reassert themselves. Bettors should focus on the rebound battle. Additionally, how each team defends the paint and whether the Aces can limit Mitchell’s looks from deep are important.

Game details

Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena — Las Vegas, NV
TV: ESPN2

Current Betting Odds (Bovada)

Bovada currently lists the Las Vegas Aces around −7.5 (Aces −7.5) with the Indiana Fever about +7.5. Also, the game total sits near 158.5 points. Moneyline and alternate markets are available on the Bovada board for those who prefer lower variance plays or player props.

Public Betting Snapshot

Most of the public handle is on Las Vegas to close this series at home. They’ve shown the ability to dominate inside and roll out multiple scoring options. Contrarian money has flowed toward Indiana after the Fever’s gutsy wins to force Game 5. So, watch late movement. If the line ticks toward the Fever, it’s usually smart to shop for better numbers. For a live look at broad public splits, use a public betting snapshot chart.

News, Notes & Storylines

• Injury/availability context: Indiana has been battling roster attrition all postseason. They have gotten a massive lift from Kelsey Mitchell and big nights from Aliyah Boston. Depth has been tested, which makes rotations and minutes management critical.
• Aces’ strengths: Las Vegas remains elite on the glass and in the paint. When A’ja Wilson and the Aces’ supporting cast are clicking, they generate second-chance points and clog transition lanes. These aspects, along with the home crowd and matchup length, favor the Aces.
• Fever blueprint: Indiana’s path is clear — win the turnover battle and crash the offensive boards. They also need to get Mitchell clean catch-and-shoot chances off screens. If the Aces’ guards get sloppy or if Indiana’s wings heat up from deep, the Fever stay alive.
• Key matchup: Who controls the paint (A’ja Wilson vs. Aliyah Boston and helper defenders)? That matchup will determine pace and possession count late.

Previous Meeting Information (last 3 games)

This series has traded momentum. Game 4 was a feverish Indiana 90–83 win. Game 3 saw Las Vegas respond with an 84–72 victory. Lastly, Game 2 was a convincing Aces 90–68 result. Those three show the series’ volatility — Indiana can win with physical defense and inside work. Meanwhile, Las Vegas can blow games open when they own the glass and get efficient looks.

Fever vs Aces Game 5 Prediction

Las Vegas has the clearer roster advantage. Their size, interior scoring, and bench depth matter most in a decisive game on their floor. Indiana’s run has been special and they’re battle-tested, but the Aces simply have more reliable ways to score across lineups. The home crowd will matter late.

The pick — Las Vegas Aces −7.5
This is a play-with-conviction spread lean. I expect the Aces to control the paint, limit second-chance points, and force tougher outside looks for Indiana down the stretch. If you prefer a secondary angle, consider the Aces moneyline for more upside or the under ~158.5 as a totals hedge. This is if you expect tightened rotations in a high-pressure closeout. But the highest-conviction play is laying the points with Las Vegas.

Want to lock this in? Place your wager at Bovada.lv.