The Fever vs Aces Game 3 prediction is a classic momentum-vs-depth spot: the Las Vegas Aces bring superior size and rotation into Indiana. Meanwhile, the Fever will lean on toughness, transition chances, and home-court energy. With the series tied, bettors should focus on who wins the glass. Additionally, which backcourt can limit easy looks — that will decide the winner in Indianapolis.
Game details
Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse — Indianapolis, IN
TV: ESPN2
Current Betting Odds (from Bovada)
Bovada currently lists the Las Vegas Aces as the favorite around −4.5 at Indiana. The game total is posted at 163.5. Moneyline and alternate lines are available on the Bovada board. The spread and total above are the market anchors verified at the time of this write-up.
Public Betting Snapshot
The public market has leaned toward Las Vegas across most books given the Aces’ overall roster advantage and recent form. However, Indiana’s home crowd and ability to force turnovers have drawn contrarian money. Expect handle to remain active and the line to move slightly as tip approaches. This is particularly true if there are late injury or rotation updates.
News, Notes & Storylines
- Series status: The semifinal series is tied 1–1 heading into this showdown. Both teams have shown they can win in different ways. Thus, matchup execution will matter more than pure talent on any given night.
- Las Vegas edge: The Aces are built to control the paint and punish offensive rebounds. Their depth lets them maintain pressure for long stretches. They can wear opponents down late.
- Indiana counter: The Fever will attack in transition, try to push tempo, and hunt perimeter scoring opportunities. Limiting second chances and converting early possessions is their clearest path to an upset.
- Key matchup: A’ja Wilson’s ability to impact both scoring and rebounding versus Indiana’s frontcourt defense will likely be the decisive matchup.
Previous Meeting Information
This series has already produced lopsided and tight games: Indiana stunned Las Vegas in Game 1 on the road. Las Vegas answered with a strong win in Game 2, evening the series. Those results underscore how swingy this matchup is — when Indiana hits from deep and wins the rebound battle, they’re dangerous. Conversely, when the Aces control the paint it’s hard to keep up.
Fever vs Aces Game 3 Prediction
Las Vegas brings the clearer, roster-driven advantage — size, rebounding and bench depth — and they’ll look to impose that inside. Indiana’s path to victory is forcing turnovers, getting out in transition, and hitting timely threes. At home the Fever will have energy, but the Aces’ matchup advantages should show up over 40 minutes.
The pick — Las Vegas Aces −4.5.
This is a confident, play-with-conviction spread lean. Back the Aces to cover as they should control the paint. They will limit second chances and use their depth to close the game. If you want a totals angle, the 163.5 number tilts toward the under if both sides shorten rotations and tighten defensively late. Nevertheless, the highest-conviction play is laying the short number with Las Vegas.
Lock in your wager at Bovada.lv.