Last Updated on September 25, 2025 3:44 pm by Anthony Rome
Friday night brings an ACC opener as No. 8 Florida State visits Virginia at Scott Stadium (ESPN). Below we compare opening odds to current odds, public money, injuries, weather, and our expert pick with buy/sell points. For broader context, hit the CFB public betting trends and the College Football hub.
Updated:
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: No. 8 Florida State at Virginia
- Date/Time: Fri, Sept. 26, 7:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Venue: Scott Stadium (Charlottesville, VA)
Opening Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU −7 | FSU ~−260 / UVA ~+210 | 58.0 | Books hung −7 with a 58 total; quick probes to 7.5 on sharper boards. |
Current Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | Move (open→now) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU −7.5 (−7 at some shops) (↑ from −7) | FSU −255 to −290 / UVA +235 to +240 (FSU shaded) | 59.5 | Noles took early support to 7.5; total trimmed a tick off 58 on some screens. |
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Public Money — Tickets %, Money %, Line Moves
- Tickets % (Spread): FSU leaning (~60% side)
- Money % (Spread): FSU slight majority (~60%)
- Total Market: Over interest shows up at 57.5–58; side shaded to the favorite after early 7s were bet.
Injuries & Weather
- Injuries: FSU depth chart this week shows no major changes among primary skill starters; role players shuffled (TE/LB/DL) as availability improves. Monitor Friday inactives. Virginia’s status largely unchanged from last week.
- Weather: Comfortable evening in Charlottesville — temps around low-70s at kick, light winds, low rain risk. Minimal weather impact expected.
Trends That Matter
- FSU has been taking the early money up to −7.5; ML shaded toward −270/−290 range.
- Series trend leans Under historically; current board sits high-50s with two-way at 58.
- Virginia has covered respectably at home spots recently; market still pricing FSU near a full TD on the road.
Expert Pick & Buy Points
Pick: Florida State −7 (buy the 7) — prefer laying a flat 7 (−115 or better); at −7.5 reduce stake or wait for 7 to reappear.
- Buy up to: FSU −7 (−120 max). If you only see −7.5, target −7 alt or consider ML parlay legs.
- Sell down to: Avoid −8/−8.5; the hook matters in a 24–17 / 31–24 corridor.
- Alt options: FSU −2.5 tied with small Over 56.5 SGP if you can capture sub-field-goal on the side.
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