Last Updated on September 22, 2025 7:40 am by Michael Cash
Looking for MLB Best Bets September 22 2025? We’ve vetted the official Monday slate and this morning’s lines to deliver three high-confidence moneyline picks and two live long shots. For context and timing entries, browse our latest MLB betting articles and track live splits on the MLB public betting chart. Below: Monday MLB Best Bets, long-shot value, a moneyline-only public snapshot, actionable trends, and a concise Today’s Card (picks only).
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Monday MLB Best Bets
1) Atlanta Braves ML (–265) vs Washington Nationals — 7:15 PM ET
Why we like it: Clear run-prevention edge at home with a cleaner leverage bullpen. If Atlanta wins counts early, the bat-missing bridge scripts the late frames.
2) San Diego Padres ML (–122) vs Milwaukee Brewers — 9:40 PM ET
Why we like it: Petco run suppression plus a sturdy pen narrows the gap versus a top-end road arm. Short-favorite pricing with multiple late-inning win paths.
3) San Francisco Giants ML (–144) vs St. Louis Cardinals — 9:45 PM ET
Why we like it: Oracle’s run environment and a strike-throwing starter/pen combo favor the home side in a sub-heavy-chalk band.
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Today’s MLB Long Shot Picks
1) Milwaukee Brewers ML (+102) @ San Diego Padres — 9:40 PM ET
Why it’s live: Top-end starter form can compress variance in a low-total park; if Milwaukee gets six strong with traffic control, the plus-money tag is live even against a quality pen.
2) St. Louis Cardinals ML (+121) @ San Francisco Giants — 9:45 PM ET
Why it’s live: Divisional familiarity plus contact-management upside creates multiple upset routes in a game lined under heavy-chalk territory.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only)
See live percentages on our MLB public betting percentages page.
- Braves vs Nationals: Public on Braves ≈ 90% — aligned with our Braves ML pick.
- Padres vs Brewers: Public on Padres ≈ 54% — opposite our Brewers long shot; public on SD, value may lie with MIL.
- Giants vs Cardinals: Public on Giants ≈ 82% — opposite our Cardinals long shot; public on SF, value may lie with STL.
Trends & Notes
- Short home favorites (≤ –160) with bullpen edges hold value in low-total parks — fits Padres and Giants profiles.
- Heavy public sides can inflate chalk late in September — price discipline on Braves ML (avoid chasing beyond steep ranges).
- Dogs +100 to +130 gain EV when public support on the favorite ≥ ~60% — monitor Brewers/Cardinals right up to first pitch.
Today’s Card — Monday, September 22, 2025 (ET, picks only)
- Nationals @ Braves — ATL –265 (7:15 PM)
- Brewers @ Padres — SD –122 (9:40 PM)
- Cardinals @ Giants — SF –144 (9:45 PM)
- Long Shot: Brewers +102 @ Padres
- Long Shot: Cardinals +121 @ Giants
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