The Mercury vs Lynx Game 1 prediction centers on Minnesota’s home-court advantage and depth against Phoenix’s resilience and perimeter shooting. After both teams advanced from the first round, this semifinal matchup will hinge on rebounding, interior defense, and the ability to execute in closing minutes. Bettors should focus on Minnesota’s ability inside. Furthermore, consider Phoenix’s potential to create turnovers and hit timely outside shots.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Location: Target Center — Minneapolis, MN
TV: ESPN
Current Betting Odds
Bovada currently lists the Phoenix Mercury at +6.5 and the Minnesota Lynx at −6.5, with the total set at 158.5 points. Moneyline pricing shows roughly Mercury +260 / Lynx −320.
Public Betting Snapshot
Public betting is strongly favoring the Lynx due to their dominant regular-season performance and home-court advantage. However, some support is coming in for Phoenix after their strong Game 3 performance in the first round. The spread has held near −6.5 for the Lynx. Meanwhile, the total is receiving split action as bettors weigh potential blowout versus a slower, half-court finish.
News, Notes & Storylines
- Minnesota advantage: The Lynx have the home crowd and a deep rotation, which allows them to control tempo and wear down opponents late.
- Phoenix keys: The Mercury must limit turnovers, crash the offensive boards, and get early buckets from their wings to avoid a long Phoenix second-quarter run.
- Matchups to watch: The battle inside with Sylvia Fowles and Minnesota’s frontcourt, as well as guard matchups and three-point efficiency. Winning the rebounding battle will likely decide the outcome.
- Momentum: Minnesota carries confidence from sweeping their first-round series and is playing at home, giving them a clear edge.
News, Notes & Storylines
- Minnesota advantage: The Lynx have the home crowd and a deep rotation, which allows them to control tempo and wear down opponents late.
- Phoenix keys: The Mercury must limit turnovers, crash the offensive boards, and get early buckets from their wings to avoid a long Phoenix second-quarter run.
- Matchups to watch: The battle inside with Sylvia Fowles and Minnesota’s frontcourt, as well as guard matchups and three-point efficiency. Winning the rebounding battle will likely decide the outcome.
- Momentum: Minnesota carries confidence from sweeping their first-round series and is playing at home, giving them a clear edge.
Mercury vs. Lynx Game 1 Prediction
Minnesota has the edge in depth, size, and home-court energy. Phoenix can make it competitive if they force turnovers and hit timely threes. However, sustaining that over 40 minutes in Minneapolis is difficult.
The pick — Minnesota Lynx −6.5.
Take the Lynx to cover at home. Expect Minnesota to control the paint, dominate rebounds, and close out this playoff series. If you prefer a totals play, the 158.5 leans slightly toward the under due to slower playoff pace and tighter rotations. However, the spread is the strongest, highest-conviction angle.
Place your bet now at Bovada.lv.