This Iowa State vs Arkansas State prediction previews a mismatch-style nonconference game in Jonesboro. Iowa State enters as a heavy favorite and will try to assert physicality on both lines, while Arkansas State’s best path is explosive plays and turnover creation to keep things competitive.
Event Information
- Matchup: Iowa State Cyclones at Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Centennial Bank Stadium — Jonesboro, AR
- TV: ESPN/ESPN2 (check local listings)
Betting Odds & Market Info
- Spread (your line): Iowa State -21.5
- Total (O/U): 56
Lock the live odds at Bovada and check ticket/money splits at the College Football Public Betting Chart before you wager.
Matchup Notes
- Iowa State strengths: Physical offensive and defensive lines that control the line of scrimmage, short-field efficiency, and a defense that limits explosive plays. These traits translate to clock control and a high floor for a heavy favorite.
- Arkansas State path: Offset Iowa State’s control by forcing turnovers, winning the special-teams battle, and generating quick striking plays — that’s the only realistic path to staying within a large spread.
- Game factors: Early turnovers, weather/conditions in Jonesboro, and whether Iowa State’s starters play heavy minutes late — rotation decisions are the single biggest swing on a 3-plus-TD number.
Prediction & Best Bet
Predicted Score: Iowa State 38, Arkansas State 10
Best Bet: Iowa State -21.5
Why I like it (expanded reasoning): Iowa State’s physical edge in the trenches and ability to eliminate explosive plays gives them a clean script to control possession and pile up points. Arkansas State can compete for a quarter or two, but the Cyclones’ depth and matchup advantages should turn this into a comfortable win and a cover well inside the 22-point number. Shop the line and confirm starters before locking in, but -21.5 is the pragmatic play here.