Last Updated on August 26, 2025 6:20 am by Anthony Rome
The New York Mets return to Citi Field for a key National League East showdown against the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies. At 70–61, the Mets look to capitalize on recent offensive momentum and extend a modest three-game home winning streak. Philadelphia, sitting atop the division at 76–55, enters riding a wave of form—winning six of their last seven—and aiming to tighten the grip on their NL East crown. The stakes feel real: a win for either side could shift postseason momentum.
Pitching Matchup: Luzardo vs. Manaea
The Phillies counter with Jesús Luzardo (12–6, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 170 strikeouts), who has been steady down the stretch, allowing just one earned run and tallying 12 strikeouts in his last outing. Opposing him is Sean Manaea (1–2, 5.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), whose August has been rough—Mets are just 1–5 in his starts this season. Advanced models, however, hint at some bad luck for Manaea, projecting him for about 5.4 innings while allowing only ~2.7 earned runs.
Lineup & Momentum
Philadelphia brings power and consistency from MVP candidate Kyle Schwarber, who leads the National League with 45 home runs and 110 RBIs. Meanwhile, the Mets counter with a deep offense featuring Juan Soto (32 HR), Francisco Lindor (recently named NL Player of the Week), and Pete Alonso (103 RBIs). New York’s bats have been lively in recent games, and with home runs being a key weapon for both teams, punch-for-punch battles look likely.
What’s on the Line
The Phillies are inching closer to locking down the division, while the Mets are battling for playoff position and can’t afford to give ground on the wild-card chase. A win for New York could shift the balance; another for Philadelphia inches them closer to a postseason clinch.
Phillies vs. Mets Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Phillies are -107 moneyline favorites to beat the Mets, who are -103 moneyline underdogs. The total, meanwhile, is sitting at 8 runs.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction
Expect a high-scoring, tense tilt at Citi Field, with both offenses ready to swing freely. Luzardo’s consistency gives the Phillies a deserved edge on the mound. But if Manaea rebounds, even a shaky outing could buy enough time for the Mets’ offense to erupt. Given the at-home setting and the Mets’ recent offensive surge, this preview leans toward New York squeaking out a victory.
Projected Final Score: New York Mets 7 – Philadelphia Phillies 6, Over 8.5 runs