Mercury vs. Storm WNBA Prediction: Will Seattle pull off small upset?

Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury players before their July 17, 2026 WNBA matchup at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury players before their July 17, 2026 WNBA matchup at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix

Sunday’s showdown at Climate Pledge Arena offers a fascinating clash of styles between two Western Conference teams jockeying for playoff positioning. With Phoenix laying a single point and the total sitting at 164.5, what’s the best bet in tonight’s Mercury vs. Storm matchup?

Mercury vs. Storm WNBA Event Info

Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm

6:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, August 17, 2025

Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA

TV: N/A

Mercury vs. Storm Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mercury are 1-point road favorites to beat the Storm. The total, meanwhile, sits at 164.5 points.

Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury (19–13) come in with one of the season’s strongest scoring differentials (+109), putting up a solid 83.1 PPG (6th in league) while allowing 79.7 on defense (4th-best). Versatile wing Alyssa Thomas has carried them with all-around production—8.6 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 16.1 points per game—while Satou Sabally adds a smooth 17.3 PPG complement. Phoenix’s offense is efficient—making 9.2 threes per game at 33.5%, outpacing opponents both in volume and accuracy.

Seattle Storm

The Seattle Storm (17–17) are coming off a morale-boosting 80–78 win over Atlanta, snapping a troubling six-game skid. Veteran backcourt duo Nneka Ogwumike (18.2 PPG) and Skylar Diggins (16 PPG, nearly 6 APG) have kept the Storm competitive, while Seattle’s scoring stands at a respectable 81.7 PPG—just below Phoenix—though their rebounding remains a concern, especially securing just 31.4 boards per game (12th in the league).

Mercury vs. Storm Prediction

Sunday’s matchup at Seattle is a litmus test for playoff-bound Phoenix—a Mercury offense led by Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, efficient and balanced, versus a Storm squad trying to right the ship at home after a six-game skid. Seattle remains dangerous on paper, but Phoenix carries the superior offensive flow and execution.

Still, the Storm are 8-2 straight up against the Mercury and are 8-2 against the spread during that same span.

Mercury vs. Storm Prediction: SEATTLE STORM +1