In a rematch of their July skirmish, the Liberty (21-12) head to Minnesota (27-6) seeking retribution, but face a formidable opponent. With Minnesota laying 2.5 points and the total sitting at 165.5, what’s the best bet in today’s Liberty vs. Lynx matchup?
Liberty vs. Lynx Game Outlook
New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx
2:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, August 16, 2025
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV: CBS
Liberty vs. Lynx Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Lynx are 2.5-point favorites to knock off the Liberty. As for the betting total, meanwhile, the number currently sits at 165.5.
Betting Trends & Team Dynamics
Head-to-Head (Last 10 Meetings): Lynx lead the series 6–4. Against the spread, Minnesota is 7–2–1, while over/under results are a balanced 5–5.
Recent Head-to-Head:
Aug 10, 2025: Lynx beat Liberty 83–71. Liberty failed to cover, and the total went under 168.
Jul 30, 2025: Lynx edged Liberty 100–93. That line was about 167; the total hit push.
Season Form:
Minnesota: Currently on a 9-1 win run, with ATS records strong at 7-2-1 over that span.
New York: Moderate form—overs and unders mixed, losing their most recent away game.
Injuries & Key Players
New York Liberty:
Breanna Stewart is out until Aug 28.
Nyara Sabally is out until Aug 19.
Isabelle Harrison is out for this game (Aug 16).
Minnesota Lynx:
Napheesa Collier is out until Aug 21—a significant blow to star power and offense.
Standouts:
Sabrina Ionescu (NY) leads her team at 19.3 PPG.
Collier (MIN) averages 23.5 PPG per season, emphasizing her absence.
Statistical Edge
Liberty’s Offense vs. League:
Shooting Efficiency: NY is top-tier—3P% (35.5%, 2nd), FT% (84.2%, 1st), FG% (45.6%, 3rd).
Ball Movement: Liberties average 22.0 assists per game (2nd in league), with an excellent AST/TO ratio of 1.6 (1st).
Scoring: Liberty lead league scoring at 86.7 PPG.
Defensive Side:
Lynx hold opponents to 75.6 PPG, showing defensive sting.
Creative, Thought-Provoking Prediction
“Good Karma vs. Cold Comfort”
Minnesota: Dynamo defense at home, recent dominance, and ESPN’s 61% projected win odds suggest they’re the steadier play. The spread seems fair—2.5 feels well-calibrated.
New York: Starless but scrappy—missing Stewart and Sabally, but still top-tier shooting and elite ball movement. Ionescu will need to lead a Cinderella-like charge.
Betting verdict: Lean Lynx (–2.5). Their home defense and momentum edge them out.
Total prediction: Go Under 165.5. Historical head-to-head tilts low, and without Collier’s offensive firepower, points may dip again.
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction
The Lynx, riding a dominant 9-1 run, control the Target Center and sit as 2.5-point favorites, with ESPN giving them a 61% chance to win. New York’s offense remains elite—top-3 in shooting efficiency and ball movement despite the absence of Breanna Stewart and Nyara Sabally—while Minnesota’s stingy defense and home-court edge loom large. The most compelling angle? Without Collier, Minnesota lacks its primary scorer, but the Liberty’s missing stars further tilt the balance.
Expect a gritty, low-scoring battle.
Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA Prediction: MINNESOTA LYNX -2.5