The Las Vegas Aces (19–14)—on a five-game win streak—make the short trip to Phoenix to challenge the (19–12) Mercury, who are favored by 4 points at home. The winner of this showdown could gain a valuable edge in seeding heading into the playoffs, with both teams neck and neck in the standings. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Aces vs. Mercury matchup?
Aces vs. Mercury Game Outlook
Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury
10:00 p.m. ET, Friday, August 15, 2025
PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
TV: ION
Aces vs. Mercury Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Valkyries are 5.5-point favorites to knock off the Sky. As for the betting total, meanwhile, the number currently sits at 151.
Team Form & Key Storylines
Las Vegas Aces
Riding hot form, the Aces most recently dispatched the New York Liberty 83–77 behind stellar performances from Jewell Loyd (21 points) and A’ja Wilson (17 points, 16 rebounds) Their strengths lie in a potent offense averaging 82.1 PPG, coupled with efficiency and pace. However, defensively, they rank just middle of the pack and are vulnerable—Phoenix is giving up only 79.5 PPG at home, showcasing a clear mismatch.
Phoenix Mercury
At home, the Mercury are a force—averaging 83.1 PPG while allowing just 79.5, ranking among the top in defensive efficacy. Sophisticated defensive schemes and elite tempo control are the backbone of their game. Their advantage is amplified by home court comfort and a winning tendency in tight, high-stakes games.
Key Matchup Trends
The season series is knotted at 1–1, with each team securing a win on the road.
Metro betting models (via ats.io) project a razor-thin margin, with Phoenix narrowly favored in a game expected to be fast-paced and close.
The over/under total is set at 166.5, underscoring expectations of a high-scoring affair.
Aces vs. Mercury Prediction
This promises to be a thriller. Both teams are evenly matched offensively, but Phoenix holds a tangible defensive edge—and the comfort of playing at home. Las Vegas brings momentum and star power in Wilson and Loyd, but without enough defensive consistency to slow down the Mercury.
Projected Final Score: Phoenix Mercury 87, Las Vegas Aces 84
Aces vs. Mercury WNBA Prediction: LAS VEGAS ACES +4.5