In a showdown of contrasting trajectories, the Connecticut Sun (5–22) head west to face the resurgent Phoenix Mercury (17–11). The Mercury enter off a commanding win in Chicago, while the Sun hope to end their road woes. With Phoenix dominating at home and Connecticut struggling to score consistently, this game could turn into a rout if trends hold. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Sun vs. Mercury matchup?
Sun vs. Mercury Game Outlook
Connecticut Sun at Phoenix Mercury
10:00 p.m. ET, Tuesday, August 5, 2025
PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
TV: N/A
Sun vs. Mercury Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mercury are 14.5-point favorites to knock off the Sun. As for the betting total, meanwhile, the number currently sits at 165.5.
Team Form & Injury Rundown
Phoenix is riding high coming off an 83–67 victory over the Sky, with Kahleah Copper pouring in 25 points in the win. The Mercury have assembled reliable contributors like Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally—part of a revamped core following the departures of Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner. Monique Akoa-Makani and center Kalani Brown remain day‑to‑day, but the Mercury’s depth remains strong.
Connecticut enters on a nine-game road losing streak, having dropped their last two home games, including an 87–78 loss to New York. Tina Charles and Aneesah Morrow showed flashes in their last outing, but overall offensive production has been painfully low—Sun average just 74.9 PPG versus Phoenix’s 83.4 allowed.
Matchup & Betting Insights
Betting lines heavily favor the Mercury with a spread around −14.5 and a moneyline implying a 92.9% win probability for Phoenix. The over/under is set near 166 points. Historically, Phoenix thrives at home—scoring about 85.1 PPG while allowing 78.8—while Connecticut averages just 68.3 PPG on the road, with defensive lapses evident.
Despite Connecticut’s prior success in past seasons versus Phoenix, the 2025 narrative has flipped. Phoenix enters with cohesion and confidence; Connecticut is in full rebuild, fielding the worst offensive and defensive rating in the league.
Key Players & X‑Factors
Satou Sabally anchors Phoenix’s offense with around 19–20 PPG and strong rebounding presence—she’s a tough matchup for Connecticut’s frontcourt.
Alyssa Thomas remains the Mercury’s floor general, averaging near 9.5 assists per game, dishing out playmaking and rebounding support.
On the Sun side, Tina Charles remains their offensive anchor, but surrounded by inconsistency. Aneesah Morrow adds energy and double‑digit scoring but can’t carry the Sun alone.
Sun vs. Mercury Prediction
All signs point toward a decisive Phoenix victory. With the Mercury rolling, playing at home, and facing a struggling Sun squad that’s tied with rebuilding confusion and injuries, a blowout seems likely. Connecticut’s road struggles and scoring inefficiency leave them little room to stay competitive.
Expect Phoenix to dominate in transition, execute efficiently on offense, and frustrate Connecticut’s half‑court game. That said, I’m not laying 14.5 points. I’ll take the under.
Sun vs. Mercury WNBA Prediction: UNDER 165.5