Indiana (14‑12) will look to close out July on a high note with their third straight win, following strong road victories at Las Vegas (80‑70) and Chicago (93‑78). What’s the best bet in tonight’s Mercury vs. Fever matchup?
Mercury vs. Fever Game Outlook
Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever
7:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV: ESPN3/Merc+
Mercury vs. Fever Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mercury are 4-point road favorites to knock off the Fever. As for the betting total, meanwhile, the number currently sits at 163.5.
Game Preview
All-Star guard Kelsey Mitchell, fresh off a season-high 35 points (splitting 12‑for‑19 from the field and 7‑for‑10 from deep), has averaged 22.2 points over her last 10 games, ranking second in the league for July. Up front, Natasha Howard continues to anchor the defense, while rookie Makayla Timpson has blossomed as a defensive spark and energy reserve, contributing 14 points, four boards, and three steals in her most recent outing.
The Mercury (16‑9) have rebounded from a brief skid—dropping three in a row—by beating Washington 88‑72, behind a monster all‑around performance by Alyssa Thomas, who tallied 27 points, 11 boards, eight assists and three steals, and Satou Sabally (15 points). Phoenix’s core of Kahleah Copper, Thomas and Sabally continues to carry the offense; Copper, when healthy, is among the league’s top scorers, and Thomas leads the WNBA in assists while dominating all facets of the game. Despite the departures of legends like Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, Phoenix’s Big 3 has kept them in elite playoff standing.
Matchup & Betting Angles
Spread & Total: Mercury are modest 3.5‑point favorites; the total is set at 163 points.
Pace & Scoring Trends: Phoenix ranks near the middle of the league in pace, but they average around 83 points per game, while games involving Indiana average slightly higher at ≈84 points.
When Phoenix scores more than 80.4 points (Indiana’s season defensive average), they’re a whopping 12‑2; Indiana has fared well at home, averaging 86.7 PPG while giving up just 78.7.
Storylines & Intrigue
Sophie Cunningham, facing her former team for the first time, provides emotional motivation for the Fever. Traded in the offseason, she now brings veteran leadership alongside Caitlin Clark and Howard.
DeWanna Bonner, who briefly joined Indiana before re-signing with Phoenix in mid‑July, will now oppose her former teammates—a narrative subplot worth watching.
With Caitlin Clark out (still recovering from a right groin injury sustained mid‑July), Indiana continues adjusting its backcourt configuration; Aari McDonald has stepped in at point guard.
Mercury vs. Fever Prediction
This should be a tightly contested game, pitting Mitchell’s red-hot scoring against Phoenix’s versatile frontcourt attack and team chemistry. Despite Indiana’s home comfort and recent form, Phoenix’s depth and elite playmaking give them the edge. Expect a moderately high-paced affair with aggressive guards and attacking wings carrying the day.
Mercury vs. Fever WNBA Prediction: INDIANA FEVER +4