Last Updated on July 23, 2025 7:49 am by Anthony Rome
The Atlanta Dream (13–10) hit the road to face the Phoenix Mercury (15–7) tonight in Phoenix at 10 p.m. ET. This is the only WNBA game on the slate, featuring a pivotal early-season test between two playoff-contending teams. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Dream vs. Mercury matchup?
Dream vs. Mercury Game Outlook
Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury
10:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, July 23, 2025
PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
TV: CBSSN/Merc+
Dream vs. Mercury Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mercury are 7-point home favorites to beat the Dream. The total, meanwhile, currently sits at 162.5.
Key Matchup & Team Form
Both teams have strong form heading into tonight’s contest. The Mercury sit 15–7, riding a solid 7–3 record over their last ten games, while the Dream have been inconsistent, going 4–6 in that span. Phoenix has announced just a one-point loss in that stretch, and they host at a 9–3 mark. Meanwhile, Atlanta has dropped four of their last five away games.
Offensive & Defensive Insights
Each squad scores in the low 80s per game league-wide—Mercury at 83.4 and Dream at 83.3—but both are stingy defensively, holding opponents to around 79 points. Phoenix has a healthy +90 scoring differential, propelled by efficient rebounding (34.4 boards/game) and a prolific 3-point attack, hitting 10 threes per outing at a 34.5% clip. Atlanta leads the league in rebounding (37.3 boards/game) and forces more defensive boards than any other team, giving them a strong second-chance presence.
Allisha Gray remains Atlanta’s go-to, averaging 18.6 points and close to 4 assists per game. Phoenix counters with Satou Sabally (19.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG) and Alyssa Thomas, who dishes nearly 9.5 assists and scores 15.2 per game. Sami Whitcomb also gives them spacing, draining 2.2 threes per contest.
Storylines to Watch
Rebounding battle: Will Atlanta’s elite boards offset Phoenix’s spacing and backcourt strength?
Creation vs. spacing: Thomas is averaging a WNBA-high 9.5 assists—can she find open shooters and render the Dallas repeat too predictable for Atlanta’s defense?
Travel vs. routines: The Dream’s road struggles (5–7 away) contrast with Phoenix’s formidable home form (9–3), an edge that may prove telling.
Dream vs. Mercury Prediction
Expect a fast-paced, close contest defined by pace and perimeter duels. Lean Phoenix to cover the –7.5, relying on their home dominance and offensive rhythm, but take the Over 161.5—this matchup projects offensive fireworks between two rebounding and shooting powerhouses.
Dream vs. Mercury Prediction: OVER 162.5