The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx (17–2) head to Phoenix to face the Phoenix Mercury (12–6) in a crucial Western Conference battle on July 9, 2025. This marks the third meeting of the season and brings together two elite teams, with Minnesota undefeated in conference play following a dominant start. What’s the smart bet in tonight’s Lynx vs. Mercury matchup?
Lynx vs. Mercury Game Outlook
Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury
3:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, July 9, 2025
PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
TV: N/A
Lynx vs. Mercury Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Lynx are 5.5-point road favorites to beat the Mercury. The total, meanwhile, sits at 163.5 points.
Leading the charge for Minnesota is Napheesa Collier, who has emerged as a frontrunner for MVP honors. She’s putting up staggering numbers—averaging around 24.5–26.3 PPG alongside 8+ RPG, and holding the Lynx as one of the stingiest defenses in the league, allowing only about 76 points per game. Minnesota’s balanced offense is further boosted by Kayla McBride’s efficient shooting and Courtney Williams’ playmaking, sustaining the team’s elite performance.
For Phoenix, they maintain a top-6 offense and have thrived defensively—ranking first this season in 3‑point percentage and third in overall defensive rating. The dynamic duo of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas is key, combining for around 36 points, 15 boards, and 10 assists most games. However, injuries have tested their resilience: Kahleah Copper continues to recover from knee surgery, while Sabally and Copper are currently listed as out for this matchup.
Matchup to Watch
Collier vs. Mercury frontcourt in Phoenix paint: Collier’s scoring and rebounding dominance will test Phoenix’s interior defense, which must rely on Sabally and Thomas stepping up without their full lineup present.
Bench vs. Bench: Minnesota’s depth appears healthier and more stable, while Phoenix’s reserves have been thin due to ongoing injuries, potentially tipping the scale.
Early-game momentum: Minnesota has typically started slow but finishes strong; Phoenix needs to assert itself early at home to keep the game within reach.
Recent Form & Stakes
Minnesota is riding a five-game winning streak, often pulling away late, and remains unbeaten on the road in conference play. Phoenix, meanwhile, dropped their last two games and sits 7–3 at home, still striving to maintain consistency in a crowded Western race.
With the standings tight—Minnesota at 17–2 and Phoenix at 12–6, just 4.5 games back—this clash could shape playoff positioning down the stretch.
Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction
Expect Minnesota to control the paint and pace. Even with Phoenix’s frontcourt strength, Collier’s dominance and Minnesota’s deeper rotation give the Lynx an edge. If Phoenix can rally around Thomas and Sabally early and catch fire from deep, they could keep it competitive. But overall, Minnesota holds the advantage and looks to stay atop the West with another road win—likely by around 78–68.
Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction: MINNESOTA LYNX -5.5