I was surfing the net the other day and saw an article written detailing how the Kansas City Chiefs are the “darkhouse team to get to the Super Bowl”. As I am one who believes everybody’s opinion on picking an individual game against the spread deserves a certain amount of respect, I did my best to show deference to the author’s view on the Chiefs' 2007 outlook.
However, to quote two icons from my generation, John Belushi and Steve Martin, I have to say “excuuuuuusssse me”!
The Chiefs have as much chance of making it to the Super Bowl as Michael Vick does in being named the Man of the Year by the Humane Society. In fact, if you can find a book to bet the UNDER 8 for season wins, I believe it to be a great wager. At the Hilton Superbook here in Vegas the Chiefs opened at 8 season wins but with a -150 premium. I even like the UNDER 7.5 season wins available at many offshore books.
Okay, why are the Chiefs headed south?
The Chiefs have not had a very good record in drafting players that make a difference, let alone become quality NFL starters, over the past ten years. Yes they have Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, and Derrick Johnson to help pump their chest up from past drafts. Last year’s #1 pick, DE Tamba Hali, is looking like a potential future star. The Chiefs first-round choice this year, wideout Dwayne Bowe, hopefully will have better luck than past high KC WR draftees Sylvester Morris and Marvin “Snoop” Minnis. However, with Bowe showing up late for camp and overweight, he is not off to a good start.
What are the Chief’s strengths on offense? Well, a very good running back behind an average offensive line at best. KC will probably start a brand new quarterback, Brodie Croyle, who wasn’t really that great in college, especially when his playmaker wideout went down with an injury. If Croyle doesn’t work out, they can always fall back on 11-year veteran Damon Huard. Last year Huard did what was asked of him when starter Trent Green went down: not make mistakes and hand off to Johnson. Let’s face it, watching a Herm Edwards team on offense is worse than watching butter melt at room temperature.
To go from one of the best lines in the past twenty years of football to one that has a revolving door at tackle says plenty. Johnson is a very good running back, but now has a patch-work line attempting to open holes for him. Opposing defenses will bunch up at the line to stop Johnson and make the Chiefs’ signal-caller put it up.
I see where people are stating that the Chiefs adding Donnie Edwards as a free agent signee at linebacker is a coup for the KC defense. Well, maybe five years ago it was but not today. Edwards was very good in his prime, but that was the past. KC has signed other free agent defensive linemen to take the place of failed draft choices the inept KC front office has made in recent years.
A big concern for Kansas City is at cornerback where they need to get one more season from aging Ty Law and Patrick Surtain both who have their better days behind them.
In the AFC West, San Diego is better, Denver has improved, and Oakland cannot be any worse. The Chiefs schedule is not a walk in Swope Park (you have to be from KC to realize that it is one of the largest municipal parks in the US) as they also face Cincinnati, Chicago, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. Overall, KC faces four 2006 playoff teams on the road. And, one of the Chiefs’ best trends in the past only happens once this year, a home game in December where they are 21-2 since 1995. Instead a very bad KC trend happens three times this year, games on the road in December where they have a 8-17 since ’95.
The Chiefs have a very unbalanced offense, question marks at quarterback, a slumping offensive line, a defensive line looking for quick fixes, lack of depth in the secondary, a difficult schedule, and a number of aging veterans. There are too many points of failure for this team to have a winning season.
by: Staci Richards - theSpread.com - Email Us
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