The Monday Night Football matchup is a great one, as the 6-1 Denver Broncos host the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers at 8:35PM ET.
The Steelers defeated the Vikings 27-17 as a 6-point favorite in Week 7, giving them plenty of confidence heading into their bye. LaMarr Woodley scored on a fumble recovery in that game and Keyaron Fox scored on an interception return to give Pittsburgh the win and cover.
The Broncos suffered the first loss of the season last week in 30-7 loss to the Ravens. Kyle Orton passed for 152 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Denver, while Knowshon Moreno rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. Denver failed to cover as 4.5-point underdogs.
Oddsmakers from online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com have made the Steelers 3-point favorites over the Broncos on Monday night. The over/under total for this game has been set at 40 points.
Some trends to consider in this game is that Denver is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games, while the over has covered in four of Pittsburgh’s last five games, and in four of the Steelers’ last five games on the road.
Even though their loss last week to the Ravens was a bit surprising, the Broncos still aren’t getting enough respect. They’re 6-1 on the year and are 6-1 against the spread this season, yet still find themselves underdogs at home.
The Steelers have won four straight, but only covered in two of those games and were fortunate to cover two weeks ago against Minnesota. Without those two fourth quarter defensive touchdowns, Pittsburgh wouldn’t have covered the 6-point spread against the Vikings.
Our free pick for this game is the Broncos +3. Denver has risen to the occasion several times this season, especially at home where its beaten the Cowboys and Patriots as underdogs. We don’t think their 6-1 record is a fluke and believe they’ll beat Pittsburgh outright on Monday night.
Our NFL Week 9 Free Pick for this matchup is: DENVER BRONCOS +3 and OVER 40.
429 Pittsburgh Steelers –3 Over 40
430 Denver Broncos +3 Under 40
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
[OL] 09/07/2009 - Robert Brewster PUP list ( Pectoral )
[CB] 11/01/2009 - Mike Hamlin "?" Sunday vs. Philadelphia ( Wrist )
[LB] 08/22/2009 - Brandon Williams IR ( ACL )
[S] 09/06/2009 - Stephen Hodge IR ( Knee )
[LB] 11/01/2009 - Curtis Johnson "?" Sunday vs. Philadelphia ( Hamstring )
[CB] 10/28/2009 - Allen Rossum expected to miss 2-4 weeks ( Hamstring )
[LB] 08/03/2009 - Stewart Bradley IR ( ACL )
[OT] 09/15/2009 - Shawn Andrews IR ( Back )
[OT] 09/06/2009 - Fenuki Tupou IR ( Chest )
[RB] 11/04/2009 - Brian Westbrook is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Dallas ( Concussion )
[LB] 11/01/2009 - Dimitri Patterson "?" Sunday vs. Dallas ( Quad )
[WR] 10/25/2009 - Kevin Curtis out indefinitely ( Knee )
[G] 11/06/2009 - Max Jean-Gilles is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Dallas ( Shoulder )
[DE] 11/06/2009 - Victor Abiamiri is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Dallas ( Knee )
[LB] 10/22/2009 - Omar Gaither IR ( Foot )
[FS] 11/04/2009 - Macho Harris is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Dallas ( Ankle )
[DE] 11/02/2009 - Chris Clemons is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Dallas ( Shoulder )
[LB] 11/06/2009 - Chris Gocong is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. Dallas ( Hamstring )
[DT] 11/06/2009 - Broderick Bunkley is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Dallas ( Knee )
Posted: 11/9/09 12:00PM ET