XLIV Betting Preview
The culmination of the 2009-2010 season takes place on Sunday, when the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts will battle for the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLIV.
Let’s take a look at all the permanent betting information for the big game.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sportsbook.com currently list the Colts as a 4.5-point favorite over the Saints in the 2010 Super Bowl. The over/under total is currently resting at 56.5 points, which is extremely high for a Super Bowl matchup, although both of these offenses can certainly light up a scoreboard.
2009 Season Stats:
The Saints finished with the No. 1 rated offense in the NFL this season, racking up 6,461 total yards, including 4,355 passing yards and 2,106 rushing. They averaged 31.9 points per game and 403.8 total yards per game.
The Colts finished with the ninth best offense, racking up 363.1 total yards per game and 26 points per contest. Their passing game was their strength, as they averaged 282.2 YPG, compared to just 80.9 rushing yards per contents.
Defensively, the Saints ranked 25th in the league in total defense, allowing 21.3 points per contents and 122.2 rushing yards per game. The Colts finished 18th in total defense, allowing 19.2 points per game, 339.2 total yards per game and 126.5 rushing yards per contest.
It’s no wonder why the over/under total is so high.
Key Trends:
Here are some key betting trends for Sunday’s game:
* Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
* Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
* Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
* Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
* Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Colts are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Colts are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
* Colts are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
* Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
* Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Colts are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Colts are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Colts are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.
* Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
* Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Weather Report
Miami is expected to get a high of 80 degrees on Friday, with a low of 68 and a 30% chance of precipitation. Saturday is expected to be partly cloudy, but by game day the weather is supposed to be 67 degrees and sunny. Assuming Miami doesn’t get any rain on either Saturday or Sunday, it should be perfect conditions for kickoff.
Injury Report
The Saints are relatively healthy outside of minor injuries to Jonathan Vilma (knee), Jeremy Shockey (knee), Darren Sharper (knee) and a host of back ups. All of their starters are expected to play, however.
The Colts are another story. Their biggest injury concern is defensive end Dwight Freeney, who has a tear in his right ankle and hasn’t practiced in two weeks. He’s expected to play, but how limited will he be is the question. Joseph Addai is also battling a shoulder injury, while Robert Mathis (shoulder), Antoine Bethea (back) and Reggie Wayne (knee) are all dealing with minor bumps and bruises, but are expected to play.
Public Betting Information
Of the 63,000-plus bets that have currently been wagered on Sunday’s game, 57% of bettors favor the Colts over the Saints.
Line Movement:
In Vegas, the line opened at Colts -5.5 on Championship Sunday. The line stayed at 5.5 through Monday, January 25, but then dropped 5 during the afternoon of Tuesday, January 25. The line quickly went back up to Colts –5.5 to close out January 26, however.
On February 1, the line shot up another half point to Indianapolis –6, but the line then dropped back down to 5.5 to close out the day and dropped another half point between the 1st and the 4th of the month. Now the point spread is currently resting at 4.5.
Posted: 2/5/10 1:00PM ET