Twins vs. Brewers Pick
The Twins were hot for a brief moment but have fallen back to their losing ways. They’ll try to avoid a two-game losing streak with a win today over the Brewers at 1:40PM ET.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Brewers are -117 money line favorites over the Twins, who have odds of +107 to pull off the upset. The total, meanwhile, is sitting at 8.5 runs with Ricky Nolasco set to face Taylor Jungmann in the pitching matchup.
Bet Today’s Twins vs. Brewers Game
This will only be Nolasco’s third start of the season but thus far, the numbers have been decent. In 14 innings pitched he’s allowed five runs on 12 hits while posting a respectable 3.28 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. He’s not walking a ton of batters (1.29 BB/9), nor is he giving up home runs (just one on the year). But his .256 BABIP suggests that he has received some batted-ball luck and his K/9 rate is a pedestrian 5.14.
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As for Jungmann, this will be his fourth start of the season as he continues to search for his first win. He’s 0-2 with a ridiculous 9.00 ERA, which has been inflated some by a .357 BABIP. Still, his 4.84 FIP and 4.34 xFIP don’t paint a very good picture for Jungmann, who is only striking out 6.23 per nine and who’s stranding runners at just a 41.7% rate.
OUR PICK: Jungmann has been so bad that the Twins are worth taking a flier, especially since they’re a small underdog. Minnesota is 5-0 in Nolasco’s last five starts versus a team with a losing record and is 7-2 in his last nine starts overall. On the other side, the Brewers are 1-7 in Jungmann’s last eight starts and are winless at 0-5 in his last five starts coming off four days of rest. If Nolasco can just be competitive, the Twins will win assuming Jungmann continues to struggle.
THURSDAY MLB FREE PICK: MINNESOTA TWINS +107
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