Last Updated on September 23, 2025 10:34 am by Anthony Rome

The Mercury vs Lynx Game 2 prediction is all about adjustments. Minnesota took Game 1 behind physical defense and strong paint work. However, Phoenix still has the weapons to force turnovers and run in transition. With the series on the line in Game 2, bettors should weigh the Lynx’s home-court size and depth against Phoenix’s speed and ability to hit quick runs. Ultimately, this one will come down to rebounding and late-game execution.

Game details

Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Target Center — Minneapolis, MN
TV: ESPN

Current Betting Odds

Bovada currently lists the Phoenix Mercury at about +7.5 and the Minnesota Lynx at −7.5, with the game total around 159.5. Moneyline pricing is reflecting a clear Lynx edge at home. (I verified the live Bovada market prior to writing.)

Public Betting Snapshot

Public money is leaning Minnesota after the Game 1 win, but there’s renewed interest in Phoenix. Some bettors believe the Mercury can push tempo and create transition chances. Therefore, expect the spread to be actively bet and the total to see mixed action as books react to injury/lineup updates.

News, Notes & Storylines

• Minnesota’s edge: The Lynx imposed their size and depth in Game 1. They controlled the boards and got high-quality looks in the paint. Their ability to shorten rotations without a drop-off is a major plus in a tight series.
• Phoenix counters: The Mercury still threaten in transition and with multi-player scoring. If Phoenix can limit offensive rebounds and live possessions, they force Minnesota into uncomfortable half-court sets.
• Matchups to watch: Interior defense and the rebound battle will decide possession counts. Guard play and turnovers will determine which team runs. Watch who secures the early offensive rebounds — that will tilt late-game math.
• Injury/rotation notes: Check minute-management and whether either side shortens rotations; playoff rotations usually tighten, which benefits the deeper team.

Previous Meeting Information

Minnesota took Game 1 of the semifinal series 82–69 behind a balanced attack and strong second-half defense. Earlier this season, the teams split prior meetings. Phoenix beat Minnesota 79–71 on July 9, while Minnesota posted an 88–65 win on June 3. This three-game sample underlines how matchup and tempo swings decide these contests.

Mercury vs. Lynx Game 2 Prediction

Minnesota’s Game 1 performance showed the blueprint. Control the paint, limit second chances, and force contested outside looks. Phoenix will ride transition and quick ball movement when it can, but doing that consistently against the Lynx’s length is difficult in a full game. At home, with a short turnaround and deeper rotation, Minnesota has the clearer path to victory.

The pick — Minnesota Lynx −7.5
This is a confident spread play. Expect the Lynx to control rebounds, shorten the game late, and deny Phoenix easy transition opportunities. If you want a secondary angle, the total (~159.5) leans toward the under. This is especially if you believe Minnesota will clamp defensively and shorten rotations. Still, the strongest, highest-conviction play is backing the Lynx to cover the number at Target Center.

Lock in your bet now at Bovada.lv.