The Lynx vs Mercury Game 3 prediction is about who adjusts better. Minnesota has size, depth and the blueprint to control the paint; Phoenix showed in Game 2 that it can rally with pace, ball pressure and timely threes. This deciding semifinal tilt should come down to turnovers, offensive rebounds and which team executes late. Below you’ll find the verified game details, the current Bovada market, a public-betting snapshot, clean storylines, recent head-to-head context, and a single confident betting pick.
Game details
Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
Time: 8:30 PM CT / 9:30 PM ET
Location: PHX Arena — Phoenix, AZ
TV: ESPN2.
Current Betting Odds
The Bovada market (checked prior to writing) has the Minnesota Lynx about −4 and the Phoenix Mercury about +4, with the game total in the 158–159 range (book varies by minute). Use the spread and total above as the live market anchors to shop around; Bovada was the primary odds source I verified before setting the pick.
Public Betting Snapshot
Public action has leaned toward Minnesota after they took Game 1, but Phoenix’s overtime Game 2 comeback brought back sharp interest on the Mercury. Expect the line to see movement as bettors react to rotation/injury news and late sharp action; totals action is split between under/over backers depending on whether you expect a fast Phoenix pace or a Minnesota paint slog.
News, Notes & Storylines
- Momentum swing: Minnesota opened the series with a strong Game 1 win, but Phoenix answered with an overtime Game 2 victory — the winner of Game 3 gets a huge psychological edge.
- Matchup advantage: The Lynx control size and depth inside; if they can limit second-chance points and convert on the offensive glass they shorten the game and win the possession battle.
- Phoenix counter: The Mercury force tempo better than most teams and can swing the game with defensive hustle and outside shooting — when Phoenix gets transition looks, they’re dangerous.
- Key players: Watch how Minnesota’s primary scorers and interior defenders are handled by Phoenix’s wings and how Alyssa Thomas (and co.) affect possessions with rebounds and playmaking.
Previous Meeting Information (last 3 relevant games)
Game 1 of the semifinal: Lynx 82, Mercury 69 (Minnesota controlled the paint and tempo). Game 2: Mercury 89, Lynx 83 (OT), a Phoenix comeback that forced overtime and tied the series. Those two results show the matchup can flip based on turnovers and who wins rebound position. During the season, the clubs split meetings, so trends point to matchups and in-game adjustments over raw form.
Lynx vs Mercury Game 3 Prediction
This is a classic matchup-construction spot: Minnesota’s size and depth give them the clearest, roster-driven path to victory, while Phoenix can turn it with tempo and defensive disruption. In a short series decider on the road, the Lynx’s ability to win the rebound battle and shorten possessions is the decisive factor.
The pick — Minnesota Lynx −4 (play with conviction).
Lay the points with Minnesota. Expect the Lynx to control the paint, limit second chances and grind out the close in Phoenix. If you want a secondary angle, the game total around 158–159 leans slightly toward the under if Minnesota shortens rotations and clamps defensively late, but the highest-confidence play is backing Minnesota to cover the short number.
Lock your wager with my top pick at Bovada.lv.