The Liberty vs Mercury Game 3 prediction is simple: Phoenix has the home-court edge and momentum after a dominant Game 2. However, New York showed it can win in clutch moments and still has scoring firepower. This is a tight, high-leverage spot for bettors. The matchup will come down to Phoenix’s interior control and New York’s ability to protect the ball. Scoring efficiently in transition is also crucial. Below you’ll find the verified game info, live Bovada market, storyline notes, previous meeting context, and a straight-ahead, confident pick.
Game details
Date: Friday, September 19, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: PHX Arena — Phoenix, AZ
TV: ESPN2
Current Betting Odds
Bovada currently shows New York Liberty +2.0 (−115) and Phoenix Mercury −2.0 (−105). Moneyline pricing is roughly Liberty +105 / Mercury −125, and the game total is 156 points (o/u around −110). These are the Bovada market numbers used for the pick below.
Public Betting Snapshot
The market is leaning Phoenix after a statement Game 2. However, a chunk of the public still respects New York’s ability to win tight games. Handle is split between the side and the total. Therefore, look for slight line movement up to lock time. If you see the number tick toward Phoenix −3, that’s where most sharp money has been pushing.
News, Notes & Storylines
- Series status: The best-of-three is tied 1–1. New York won a tough overtime Game 1 and Phoenix responded with a dominant Game 2.
- Phoenix form: The Mercury’s Game 2 performance was physical on the glass and balanced scoring. They looked like a team that knows how to win on both ends.
- New York keys: The Liberty need to limit turnovers and protect the offensive glass. They also need to get early buckets from their wings to avoid a long Phoenix second-quarter run.
- X-factors: Who wins the rebound battle and whether the Liberty can close out possessions without fouling will decide the late stages. If Phoenix controls paint touches, the Liberty will be forced into tougher outside looks.
Previous Meeting Information
The last three head-to-head results: Sept 17 (Game 2): Phoenix 86, New York 60; Sept 14 (Game 1): New York 76, Phoenix 69 (OT); July 25, 2025: New York 89, Phoenix 76. Those results show both teams can win different ways. Phoenix does so by pounding the interior and sharing the offense. Meanwhile, New York wins by defending and closing tight games.
Liberty vs Mercury Game 3 Prediction
Phoenix looks like the cleaner, more complete team right now. They controlled Game 2 on the boards and defensively slammed the door, and returning home gives them another edge. New York can absolutely make this competitive, but the matchup tilts toward the Mercury’s size and second-chance work.
The pick — Phoenix Mercury −2.0 (play with conviction).
Lay the short number with Phoenix at home. Expect the Mercury to control the paint and the glass. This should force New York into tougher shots late. If you want a totals angle, the 156 leans slightly toward the under. This is due to playoff pace and defensive adjustments. However, the highest-conviction play is backing Phoenix to cover.