The Fever vs Aces Game 1 prediction centers on Las Vegas’ home-court advantage and depth against Indiana’s resilience and perimeter shooting. After both teams advanced from the first round, this semifinal matchup will likely hinge on rebounding and interior defense. Additionally, the ability to execute in the closing minutes is critical. Bettors should focus on Las Vegas’ ability to dominate inside. Meanwhile, they should consider Indiana’s potential to create turnovers and hit timely outside shots.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena — Las Vegas, NV
TV: ABC
Current Betting Odds
Bovada currently lists the Indiana Fever at +9.5 and the Las Vegas Aces at −9.5, with the total set at 163.5 points. Moneyline pricing shows roughly Fever +350 / Aces −450.
Public Betting Snapshot
Public betting is strongly favoring the Aces due to their dominant regular-season performance and home-court advantage. However, some support is coming in for Indiana after their strong Game 3 performance in the first round. The spread has held near −9.5 for the Aces. The total is receiving split action as bettors weigh potential blowout versus a slower, half-court finish.
News, Notes & Storylines
- Las Vegas depth and form: The Aces dominated Game 1 with size, rebounding, and balanced scoring. Their bench and rotation depth make them tough to beat in a short series.
- Indiana’s urgency: The Fever must force turnovers, crash the offensive glass, and get early buckets from their wings to avoid a long Phoenix second-quarter run.
- Key matchups: A’ja Wilson inside versus Indiana’s frontcourt, guard play on both teams, and rebounding control will likely determine the outcome.
- Momentum: Aces have momentum from winning the first two games and are playing at home, giving them a clear edge.
Previous Meeting Information
In the playoff series: Game 1: Minnesota 85, Phoenix 78; Game 2: Phoenix 90, Minnesota 88. Regular-season matchups also favored Las Vegas, with the Aces winning two of three earlier contests. Those results show both teams can win different ways. Phoenix wins by pounding the interior and sharing the offense, while New York excels by defending and closing tight games.
Fever vs Aces Game 1 Prediction
Las Vegas has all the advantages: home-court, superior depth, and elite scoring and rebounding. Indiana can make it competitive with pressure defense and hot shooting from the perimeter. However, the matchup strongly favors the Aces.
The pick — Las Vegas Aces −9.5.
Lay the short number with Phoenix at home. Expect the Mercury to control the paint and the glass. This should force New York into tougher outside looks late. If you want a totals angle, the 156 leans slightly toward the under given playoff pace and defensive adjustments. However, the highest-conviction play is backing Phoenix to cover.
Place your bet now at Bovada.lv.