Florian vs. Guida

One of the main card bouts for UFC 107 is a lightweight clash between top contenders Kenny Florian and Clay Guida.

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The two-time title contender, Florian, enters Saturday’s fight as the favorite with a money line of -230 while Guida has a line of +180 according to online sports book SPORTSBETTING.com. Here is a closer look at both fighters heading into this main event bout, which will take place from the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tenn. on Saturday at 10PM ET on Pay-Per View.
Kenny Florian (13-4)
Strengths
: Florian is a great all-around fighter. He is one of those guys that is not the best in any one area, but rather solid in every area. Perhaps one of Florian’s greatest strengths are his kicks and elbows. His kicks are powerful and he likes to target the body, which wares down his opponents and damages their conditioning. His elbows are sharp and have the ability to cut easily, which has given him a few stoppage victories in his career.
Weaknesses: Florian has proven he is one of the best fighters at 155 pounds, but is not the best. In order for other contenders to get a title match, they have to go through Florian. Motivation can become a factor for Florian, as he has lost two title fights and may never get another chance to win the championship. Florian has been suspect to submissions by superior jiu-jitsu fighters, but Guida is not a submission fighter. Florian has typically down well against wrestlers like Guida.
Last Five Fights:
Fourth round submission loss to B.J. Penn at UFC 101 on Aug. 8, 2009

First round submission win over Joe Stevenson at UFC 91 on Nov. 15, 2008

Unanimous decision win over Roger Huerta at UFC 87 on Aug. 9, 2008

Second round TKO win over Joe Lauzon at UFC Fight Night 13 on April 2, 2008

First round submission win over Din Thomas at UFC Fight Night 11 on Sept. 19, 2007
 
Clay Guida (25-10):
Strengths: Guida is a no-nonsense kind of fighter that just brings the action and doesn’t care where the fight takes him. He can also take a punch, as we saw in his last fight against Diego Sanchez. Guida was devastated on two occasions in the first round of that fight, but came back and scored a number of takedowns on Sanchez, losing a close split decision. Guida has great cardio as well, which he will need in this fight.
Weaknesses: Guida is not a great striker, but he is willing to throw with anyone, which has led to some of his downfalls. Guida has a small reach which gives him problems getting inside his opponents as they try to keep the fight at a distance. Guida is also one of those fighters that has struggled to win “the big one” in his career.
Last Five Fights:
Split decision loss to Diego Sanchez at Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale on June 20, 2009

Split decision win over Nate Diaz at UFC 94 on Jan. 31, 2009

Unanimous decision win over Mac Danzig at UFC Fight Night 15 on Sept. 17, 2008

First round TKO win over Samy Schiavo at UFC Fight Night 13 on April 2, 2008

Third round submission loss to Roget Huerta at Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale on Dec. 8, 2007
 
Who will win: Florian has the experience and talent to win this fight, but if there is an upset on the main card, Guida may be the most likely. I think Guida can get Florian to the ground and win the fight with control and ground and pound, but has to worry about submissions and elbows from Florian. This will be a close and exciting fight, but I think Guida has the motor and the mindset to win the fight. With the betting line so high against him, I think he is a good play to get the decision victory.

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Posted: 12/12/09 9:58AM ET

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