NFL Betting Strategy: Team SOS

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The NFL is one of the most exciting sports to bet on greatly because of its unpredictability. While on the face of each game, fans can find key matchups between defensive lines and offensive lines or wide receivers and cornerbacks, games don’t always play to the script for a huge range of mitigating factors, from injuries to the weather.

So, NFL bettors like to try and find an edge for their wagers wherever they can. As many bettors who aim to win over the long-term strategize their bets, one of the most sought pieces of information is the schedule strength of each team. Judging a team’s schedule strength can involve some bias, but five weeks into the season, using outright Super Bowl odds, a ranking was made showing the teams with the easiest schedules according to the average Super Bowl odds of their upcoming opponents.

Coming into Week 6, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis were deemed to have the easiest schedules, but ended up losing their Week 6 games. So, should NFL bettors continue to back the Saints and Steelers based on their schedule strength?

Jacksonville Jaguars need to recover from blowout losses

When the new season came around, everyone earmarked the Jacksonville Jaguars and their almighty defense to be Super Bowl contenders. But, through six games, the Jags were 3-3 following 30-14 and 40-1 losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, respectively.

On most game days, the Jaguars would be at odds below evens and favored to win, and according to their upcoming opponents’ average Super Bowl odds, they have the second-easiest schedule. So, many would see them as a shoe-in to win the vast majority of their remaining games. But, it’s important to consider the week-to-week occurrences and to be selective when doing NFL weekly picks, as it’s far smarter to be selective than to bet on every single game.

Looking at Jacksonville and their schedule from Week 7 onwards, they do have many favorable matchups against the likes of the Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins in which the Jags will be favored to win. But, as shown by the Cowboys, the defense is currently susceptible to a blowout loss, while the offense is struggling without Leonard Fournette posing a threat from the backfield to keep the opposing defense honest.

Assuming that the Jaguars can rally, they look to have a very favorable schedule which should have them in consideration in most weeks for NFL bettors.

Perhaps avoid the Indianapolis Colts

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Source: Indianapolis Colts, via Twitter

They may have the easiest schedule according to their opponents’ odds to win the Super Bowl, but it doesn’t mean that this Indianapolis Colts team can beat any of them. To start the season, the Colts were surprising many fans with the strength of their defense which helped them to win their second game of the season. But now, with a 1-5-0 record, they look like the basement-dwelling team that they were perceived to be in pre-season.

Games against the Oakland Raiders and Buffalo Bills could be close contests, but others like the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and even the New York Giants should prove to be far too much for the Colts to handle. While the schedule is seemingly easy, it’s still too strong for the Colts. Possibly being a bit generous, NFL bettors could maybe expect the Colts to reel in three or maybe four more wins over their last ten games.

Strategic betting each week is key to being a successful NFL bettor, and while a team does boast an easier schedule, they’re not guaranteed to win all of their games. So, be sure not to get too attached to a team week-to-week. 

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