Gunnevera vs. McCraken Prediction
Can Gunnevera upset McCraken in Saturday's Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs? Let's analyze the matchup.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, McCraken has 20/29 odds to finish ahead of Gunnevera, who has 21/20 odds to pull off the "upset." Thus, a $29 wager on McCraken to finish ahead of Gunnevera would net $20, and a $20 wager on Gunnevera would net a bettor $21. The winner of this matchup prop does not have to win the Kentucky Derby outright, just merely finish ahead of its contender.
In his final prep for the Derby, Gunnevera finished third in the Grade 1 Florida Derby behind Always Dreaming and State of Honor, respectively. He also won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, placed second in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, and won the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot. Not short on experience, Gunnevera has four wins in nine career starts, posting a pair of second-place finishes and one third-place finish as well.
McCraken only has five starts under his belt but won four of those races and also placed third in his other start. In his final prep before the Kentucky Derby, McCraken finished third in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes on April 8 after winning the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis in February. The most intriguing aspect about McCraken is that he's undefeated in three career races at Churchill Downs.
Kentucky Derby Matchup Prediction
McCraken showed some rust in his third-place showing in the Blue Grass Stakes, which came after a break in training due to injury. He does have a couple of sharp workouts at Churchill Downs and has dominated on this track before, but I'm calling for the upset. Gunnevera has won three graded stakes races over his nine-race career and has placed in the money seven times in nine starts. Considering Gunnevera has a legit shot to win the Kentucky Derby outright as one of the long-shots, I like his value in this prop bet.
2017 Kentucky Derby Prediction: Gunnevera over McCraken