2012 Kentucky Derby Predictions
LOUISVILLE, KY (The Spread) – After a full week of coverage, it’s time for us to hand out our predictions for the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
Listed below is our top 3 for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, which takes place today, Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs.
Win: Dullahan (8/1)
We see massive value in Dullahan, who is coming off a victory at the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass on April 14. He also placed second at the Grade III Palm Beach on March 11, finished fourth at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on November 5 of last year, and won the Grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity on October 8. Kent Desormeaux, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times, will have the mount and Dullahan drew the No. 5 post position, which has produced the winner of the Derby 12 times. Only the rail has won more Derbys since 1900.
Place: Bodemeister (13/10)
Along with Union Rags, Bodemeister entered the day as a favorite of 13/10 odds. What’s attractive about Bodemeister is that he has a winning trainer-jockey combination of Bob Baffert (three Kentucky Derby victories) and Mike Smith, who won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Giacomo. What’s also intriguing about Bodemeister is that he wins. He only has four career races under his belt, which is a concern, and no horse has won the Derby that has not run as a 2-year-old since 1888. Still, he’s coming off an impressive win at the Grade I Arkansas Derby on April 14 and he also placed second at the Grade II San Felipe on March 10. We like him to at least finish in the money.
Show: Take Charge Indy (11/1)
It’s hard to overlook the horse that will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who has won three of the last five Kentucky Derbys. But Take Charge Indy is an impressive contender on his own. He went wire-to-wire in the Grade I Florida Derby on March 31, which was his only race of this year. Granted, he did finish out of the money at both the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on November 5 (fifth), as well as the Grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Cp Futurity on October 8 (fourth) of last year. But you know coming out of the No. 3 post position that Borel will get to the rail quickly and challenge for the lead at some point during today’s race.
The 2012 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 5 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The post positions will be drawn on Wednesday and we’ll have coverage leading up to the race on Saturday so make sure you check out The Spread for more horse racing content.