Early Season Betting Offers Best Value
If you’re an avid NFL or college football fan and betting aficionado that is looking to get an edge with your upcoming 2018 betting campaign, then you should know that there are more ways to put a dent in your favorite sportsbook than you can probably imagine.
One of these means is by getting a big beating the bookie early in the season. While there are a handful of drawbacks to betting too much too early, there are also undoubtedly a bunch of wonderful ways you can use the early part of any season to your betting advantage.
Let’s examine a trio of those reasons right now.
Teams Haven’t Formed Their Identities
One reason early season betting offers good value is that teams haven’t formed the identities that will come to define them later on in the season. While this may sound like a bad thing, that’s not necessarily the case.
For instance, let’s use the 2017 Houston Texans as an example.
Last season, Houston planned on starting veteran quarterback Tom Savage, (apparently, for an entire half) when it became readily apparent that gifted rookie signal-caller Deshaun Watson was the better option despite being a first-year performer.
Well, at the time, Houston looked like a defensive juggernaut that featured former Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt and a bunch of other Pro Bowl-caliber defenders that would keep their opponents from scoring early and often.
Sure enough, the Texans did just that in Weeks 1 and 2, playing under identical 38-point totals those first two weeks. If you took the Texans at face value, then you probably came up roses the first two weeks of the 2017 season, but then, everything changed once Watson got acclimated to the NFL and the Texans started scoring points in bunches the next five weeks, turning what once looked like a defensive juggernaut into an offensively explosive team. Of course, injuries to watt and several other defensive starters also keep Houston from being the defensive powerhouse they once looked like they would become.
The same could be said of the perennially high-scoring New Orleans Saints. In Weeks 1 through 3, New Orleans played Over the Total like they generally have done during the Drew Brees era, but shortly after that, the Saints became very good defensively and played Under the total in four of their next five games while limiting their opponents to 17 points or less four times during that stretch. By wagering on both teams early last season you would have gotten value based on their past performances, if not so much as the ones that followed after the first few weeks.
High Scoring Affairs
In my experience as a pro and college football handicapper, I’ve also found that betting the Over more often than not on games early in the season is the way to go. For me, it seems that teams that are going to be strong defensive teams at some point in the season, generally need a few weeks to work out the kinks in their defensive schemes or for their players to adjust to their respective systems.
You’ll be able to find some really good value if you focus on games that feature at least one good offensive team playing like New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay or maybe Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers vs. whomever! Look for value-packed Over/Under total odds featuring at least one solid offensive team and when others go low, you go high!
There’s No Place Like Home
Again without looking at any statistical data, I believe teams benefit from being at home more than at any other time during the season. Young teams take comfort in playing in front of their home fans and more experienced teams or those that will become legitimate title contenders, may not quite have forged their road warrior mindset making home teams a good way to go early in any season.
Of course, you’ll still need to do your statistical and betting trends analysis, but more often than not, you’ll find the early season value you’re looking for by backing home teams.