The first slate of 2026 opens with some tantalizing matchups across the NHL — including two underdogs that project to be unpredictable while offering value, and a total goal line that looks ripe for the over. Let’s break down three best bets for Thursday NHL Best Bets Jan. 1 with reasoning you can trust.
NHL Best Bet: Capitals at Senators over 6.5
Bet: Capitals/Senators Over 6.5
Why This Has Value: The Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators both project toward offensive tilt while struggling (at times) on the defensive side, and recent trends support a high-scoring outcome.
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Caps offense clicking: Washington just dropped a 6–3 win over the Rangers with Tom Wilson scoring twice and chipping an assist, and the team averaging 3.6 goals per game over 5 contests.
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Goaltending isn’t shutdown: Ottawa is missing goalie Linus Ullmark (expected out through Jan. 5), reducing stern staves in net for the home side.
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Senators ability to score: Ottawa still puts up ~3.5 goals per game, and even in losses have shown offensive urgency.
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H2H and venue pace: Previous meetings (and this season’s league totals) show this pairing capable of pushing past 6.5 — especially with Washington’s high-tempo attack led by Ovechkin/Strome/Protas and Ottawa’s top line with Tkachuk and Stutzle.
Capitals’ defense has been spotty, and Ottawa’s goaltending situation only strengthens the case for goals on both sides. Play the Over 6.5 with confidence.
NHL Best Bet: Toronto Maple Leafs -125 (vs. Jets)
Bet: Maple Leafs ML −125
Why This Is Smart: Toronto enters at home with a clear edge against a struggling Winnipeg club.
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Home strength & trends: The Leafs have been successful at Scotiabank Arena, with the home team winning their last 8 games. Ottawa’s trend data also points to Toronto’s higher likelihood of success.
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Jets slump: Winnipeg is on a 7-game winless stretch and ranks outside the upper tier offensively, averaging only ~2.8 goals per game.
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Maple Leafs attack: Toronto has averaged north of 3 goals per game and has gone OVER in a large share of home games vs. Winnipeg — an indicator of offensive advantage.
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Injury caveats managed: While defenseman Chris Tanev is out long-term and Dakota Joshua is sidelined, star forwards Auston Matthews and William Nylander are expected to skate, keeping elite scoring threats in play.
In sum, even with some defensive injuries, Toronto’s superior offensive depth and home ice polish make ML −125 a strong lean here.
NHL Best Bet: Red Wings at Penguins over 5.5
Bet: Red Wings/Penguins Over 5.5
Why the Over Is Compelling: Both Detroit and Pittsburgh have offensive upside — and defensive lapses — that should push this total to hit.
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Trend backing: At Pittsburgh’s building, the goal pace is elevated (~7.3 G/GP) with a strong OVER rate at PPG Paints Arena.
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Red Wings offense: Detroit sits atop the Atlantic Division and brings an active scoring profile behind Dylan Larkin and Moritz Seider’s transitional offense.
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Penguins attack, injuries factored: Even with Evgeni Malkin out injured, Sidney Crosby’s presence and the Penguins’ offensive commitment keeps this a high-tempo, high-chance game.
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Game flow implications: The Red Wings’ recent credentials suggest they’ll keep pushing offensively — and Pittsburgh’s games recently averaged nearly 7 goals, per trends and picks analysis.
Given the attacking tendencies and middling defenses, this matchup should easily clear 5.5 goals — even against an underrated Penguin goalie tandem.
Thursday NHL Best Bets Jan. 1
- Capitals at Senators over 6.5
- Toronto Maple Leafs -125
- Red Wings at Penguins over 5.5
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