Sunday NHL Best Bets Nov. 30: Could Senators upset Stars?

Last Updated on November 30, 2025 1:00 am by Anthony Rome

If you’re hunting edge on a Sunday slate, you want bets that respect goaltending, pace and recent scoring trends — not emoji-driven hype. Today’s Sunday Best Bets Nov. 30 article features three plays that lean on conservative scoring profiles and matchup nuance: two UNDER plays where recent form and team tendencies point to low totals, and a contrarian moneyline with value on the road.

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NHL Best Bet: Ducks/Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 (-105)

Both teams have shown stretches this month where goals have been hard to come by, and the matchup page shows a modest regression in combined scoring for recent games. Anaheim’s defensive structure has tightened against teams that don’t press a wild transition game, while Chicago’s recent outings have been low-event affairs with conservative deployment of offensive zone time. When you combine middling power-play impact on both sides and the likelihood that coaches will manage minutes to protect their goalies late in the back-to-back window, the 6.5 number looks playable on the UNDER at -105.

NHL Best Bet: Flames/Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 (-135)

Calgary and Carolina both feature disciplined defensive systems that limit high-danger chances; Covers’ matchup snapshot indicates both clubs have been limiting opponent chances in recent weeks and games between structured, high-D-zone teams tend to trend UNDER. The price is a little short at -135, but the matchup suggests two disciplined teams likely to keep play in the middle of the ice and rely on goaltending in tight spots — a classic recipe for a sub-7 total.

Also consider situational factors: when either club deploys its top defensive pairings in heavy minutes and special teams are a wash, odd-man rushes decline and empty-net scoring (which sometimes bloats totals late) is the main risk.

NHL Best Bet: Ottawa Senators +120 (at Stars)

Road moneyline value is rare in evenly matched contests, but Ottawa at +120 against Dallas presents a value spot. The Senators own some underlying metrics that suggest they’re beating expected goals in recent weeks and getting better goaltending performance than their record implies; Dallas, meanwhile, has shown some vulnerability in defending high-danger chances at 5-on-5 on home ice in pockets. Backing the Senators for the +120 price gives you upside if Ottawa’s underlying play continues to outpace the market’s perception.

This is a pick that’s more about price than dominance — if you want to hedge, size the wager smaller than the two totals. But at +120 I like the positive expected value if Ottawa’s penalty management and transition defense hold up the way their recent matchup profile indicates.