Last Updated on January 3, 2026 9:19 am by Anthony Rome
Are the Avalanche on upset alert tonight in Carolina? Fresh off their upset win over the Golden Knights, will the Blues post another win as a home dog when they welcome the Canadiens to Enterprise Center? Our Saturday NHL Best Bets Jan. 3 column has selections for these two games, as well as two other matchups that we love today in hockey.
NHL Best Bet: Penguins +122 (at Red Wings)
Why This Is a Smart Underdog Play
1. Recent head-to-head edge & momentum
-
Pittsburgh just beat Detroit 4-3 in overtime with Kris Letang scoring the winner and Sidney Crosby starring with two goals and an assist. That was a statement performance showing the Pens can beat the Red Wings even on the road in Detroit.
2. Historical matchup trends
-
In their last 17 meetings, Pittsburgh holds an 11-3-3 advantage, with the Penguins scoring 4+ goals in 12 of those games. That suggests Pittsburgh’s style matches up well versus Detroit.
3. Balanced scoring & special teams
-
Pittsburgh’s offense (Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Anthony Mantha) sits above Detroit in expected goals and goal differential, and their potent power play creates scoring chances the Wings’ penalty kill must respect.
4. Detroit’s underdog vulnerability
-
While Detroit leads the division, they’ve struggled to consistently shut down the Penguins’ top lines, and Detroit’s goaltending has been less dependable recently — making slight moneyline value on Pittsburgh appealing.
📌 Case Summary: Pittsburgh is not just a random underdog — they’ve beaten Detroit recently in similar circumstances and bring a high-event offense that can exploit Detroit’s defensive lapses.
Pick: Penguins (+122)
NHL Best Bet: Hurricanes +122 (vs. Avalanche)
Why Carolina Has Value Here
1. Carolina’s confidence building
-
The Hurricanes snapped a skid with a 5-2 win over Detroit, showing they can generate offense and ride momentum into tough matchups. Shayne Gostisbehere and Andrei Svechnikov led a balanced attack in that game.
2. Avalanche are elite but sometimes streaky
-
Colorado is one of the NHL’s most dominant teams this season — 30-2-7 with an incredible home record and few regulation losses. But that dominance also makes them prey for emotional performances by motivated underdogs.
3. Carolina can hang in a high-tempo game
-
Hurricanes are capable of competing with high-end teams when they dictate pace and win special teams — their scoring lines and aggressive forecheck can test Avalanche turnovers. While Colorado is heavy favorite, Carolina’s goaltending and depth can limit damage if the game remains close into the third.
📌 Case Summary: Avalanche are great — but this line implies a blowout. Hurricanes have shown resilience against top competition and have offensive talent that can tilt a neutral-site or tight contest.
Pick: Hurricanes (+122)
NHL Best Bet: Blues +116 (vs. Canadiens)
Why St. Louis Is a Live Dog
1. Recent success vs Montreal
-
The Blues beat the Canadiens 4-3 on Dec. 8, with Brayden Schenn and Dylan Holloway each posting three points, showing they can hang with — and beat — Montreal’s top players.
2. Blues are hotter than people think
-
St. Louis snapped a multi-game skid with a 3-2 win over Nashville days ago, indicating they’re getting momentum and goaltending steadiness from Joel Hofer.
3. Canadiens aren’t invincible
-
Though Montreal is unbeaten in regulation in six games (4-0-2) and has been strong overall, a moneyline bite on the Blues still holds value — especially since Montreal’s wins haven’t all been dominant.
4. Competitive parity
-
Both teams have similar offensive profiles and goaltending questions; Blues getting barely longer odds might be too much given their ability to match up physically and grind Montreal’s defense.
📌 Case Summary: The Blues have proven they can beat the Canadiens lately, and St. Louis’ edge in physical play and secondary scoring gives them a realistic path to an upset.
Pick: Blues (+116)
NHL Best Bet: Jets +115 (at Senators)
Why the Jets Are a Good Longshot
1. Jets have shown they can compete
-
Winnipeg has scored at league-average rates offensively, and while they hit a rough patch earlier (e.g., eight straight losses), they’ve popped up with key wins and can sneak into playoff battles with disruptive performances.
2. Underdog value and bounce-back potential
-
Ottawa is a middling team that can beat inferior teams — but Winnipeg has the offensive weapons (like Nikolaj Ehlers and others) to generate scoring chances and force Ottawa goaltending into tough saves.
3. Jets thrive in chaos
-
When games open up and end-to-end play prevails, the Jets’ transition attack and shot generation can create scoring opportunities even if Ottawa enters as favorites. Their road numbers (historically) have shown snap upset potential.
📌 Case Summary: Winnipeg’s punch-for-punch style and potential offensive bursts make them a fine pick on the ML — especially given the moderate +115 payout reflecting confidence they can win a single game.
Pick: Jets (+115)
Saturday NHL Best Bets Jan. 3
- Pittsburgh Penguins +122
- Carolina Hurricanes +122
- St. Louis Blues +116
- Winnipeg Jets +115
Follow: Twitter/X · Bluesky · Facebook
Responsible Gaming
For help and resources, visit our Responsible Gaming page or the National Council on Problem Gambling.
Affiliate Disclosure
We may receive affiliate commissions if you sign up through links on our site. Read our full Affiliate Disclosure.