The knockout path in men’s Olympic hockey is starting to take shape in Milan, and Tuesday’s qualification-round slate features four intriguing matchups with clear betting angles. Canada and the United States dominated group play, leaving the rest of the field battling for survival — and creating opportunities for totals bettors as mismatches and urgency collide. Read on for our Men’s Olympic Hockey Best Bets Feb. 16 selections.
Italy vs. Switzerland
Switzerland -3.5 | Total: 6.5
Switzerland enters as one of the strongest European sides outside the North American favorites. The Swiss closed preliminary play with an overtime win against Czechia despite losing star winger Kevin Fiala to injury, showing depth with scoring from multiple NHL-caliber players and steady goaltending.
Italy, by contrast, failed to win a preliminary-round game and now faces a massive talent gap. In elimination settings, underdogs often press offensively when trailing — a dynamic that can inflate totals late.
Betting lean: Switzerland’s scoring depth plus Italy’s desperation creates a strong path to goals.
Prediction: Over 6.5
France vs. Germany
Germany -2.5 | Total: 6.5
France’s defensive vulnerabilities were exposed brutally in a 10-2 loss to Canada, highlighting the gap between top-tier and mid-tier nations in this tournament.
Germany, while not elite, has shown the ability to generate offense and compete physically. The United States needed a complete performance — including two goals from Matthews — to secure a 5-1 win over the Germans in group play.
With France conceding goals in bunches and Germany capable of sustained pressure, the total again becomes the most attractive betting angle.
Prediction: Over 6.5
Denmark vs. Czech Republic
Czech Republic -2.5 | Total: 6.5
Denmark earned a confidence-boosting victory over Latvia behind veteran NHL goaltender Frederik Andersen, who stopped 33 of 35 shots. That performance suggests Denmark can contribute offensively enough to push pace, even against stronger competition.
Czechia, meanwhile, pushed Switzerland to overtime in a high-event game, signaling both scoring capability and defensive volatility.
When two teams show recent games trending toward multi-goal swings, overs become especially appealing in win-or-go-home scenarios.
Prediction: Over 6.5
Latvia vs. Sweden
Sweden -2.5 | Total: 6.5
Sweden may be the most dangerous team playing Tuesday. Despite winning two of three preliminary games, goal-differential tiebreakers dropped the Swedes into the qualification round — a misleading seed for a roster stacked with NHL talent.
Latvia allowed four goals to Denmark in its most recent outing, reinforcing defensive concerns entering a matchup with a far more skilled opponent.
If Sweden controls possession as expected, Latvia will be forced into an aggressive posture late, again favoring offense.
Prediction: Over 6.5
Men’s Olympic Hockey Best Bets Feb. 17
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Switzerland/Italy Over 6.5
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Germany/France Over 6.5
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Czech Republic/Denmark Over 6.5
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Sweden/Latvia Over 6.5
Group-stage results revealed a clear scoring gap between contenders and underdogs, and elimination pressure typically increases late-game offense rather than suppressing it. With several defenses already exposed, Tuesday’s Olympic slate lines up as a strong totals-focused betting opportunity.
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