Last Updated on November 21, 2025 5:09 pm by Anthony Rome
NHL Best Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins -121
The Pens get a bump playing at home in a matchup where the market is close — both clubs bring similar records and form but Pittsburgh’s underlying home numbers and recent roster clarity give them the edge tonight. Pittsburgh has been tougher at PPG Paints Arena this month and their transition attack creates more odd-man chances against teams that have been vulnerable off the rush. If Tristan Jarry’s status or goalie rotations lean Pittsburgh’s way, that nudges the ML probability further in their direction. Covers’ matchup notes show the Penguins’ home metrics and favorable situational splits that support a straight moneyline play.
NHL Best Bet: Blackhawks @ Sabres — OVER 6.5
Chicago and Buffalo projects as one of those games that can run hot: Chicago’s recent games have pushed totals up, while Buffalo at home has been involved in higher-scoring affairs of late. The matchup history and team totals suggest both sides are capable of contributing to a multi-goal affair; Action Network and ESPN/market aggregators show market openness around 6.5 in many books, and Covers’ matchup page flags tendencies that push towards the over.
Why I like it: Chicago’s games have been bumping up the total in recent weeks and Buffalo’s home games have trended higher — combine that with projected goalie matchups and team power-play opportunities and the 6.5 vantage looks reasonable for a unit or two on the over. If you can find +EV on O6.5 at your book, it’s the play I’d take
Pick 3 — Bruins @ Kings — OVER 5.5
Boston and Los Angeles combine to push the pace in spurts, and this matchup has the hallmarks of a mid-to-high event: both clubs have playmakers that generate sustained offensive pressure and both have shown occasional defensive lapses that create multi-goal innings. Bovada’s board currently lists the total at 5.5 with the over carrying market value (Over −120 at Bovada at time of capture), which I’m happy to back given the Kings’ home scoring and Bruins’ ability to generate chances even when not the favorite. Covers’ matchup and other consensus previews agree that scoring upside is present tonight.
Why I like it: the public tends to overreact to short slumps — when the market underprices a matchup’s scoring potential (as I view tonight’s), the over at 5.5 is a sensible allocation. If the line moves up much (e.g., 6.0), re-evaluate size; at Bovada’s current number I’d place a moderate ticket on OVER 5.5.
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